2022 NFL Draft Quarterback Outlook: Red Zone Performance Survey – NFL Sports

Today I wanted to look at the performance of the Red Zone using various 2021 data from Sports Info Solutions, another key element of the 2022 quarterback. Get started right away with completion and target rates. It is defined as the number of catchable throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts excluding spikes, throwaways, QB / WR misunderstandings, receiver slips, and hit passes.

In the upper right, the Notre Dame quarterback Jack Coan has the highest overall completion rate and is ranked fifth in terms of target percentage, highlighting the best receiver play of the 12 players on the graph. But note that it is the third least. Attempt. Skylar Thompson of the Kansas State Quarterback showed the second best completion and achieved the target percentage with the second fewest attempts. Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett was the last player to exceed the average at both data points, with the highest target percentage and sixth ranked completion percentage in the second most trials, as mentioned above. More than twice as many trials as the player in. This underscores his impressive accuracy and volume in scoring situations where the defense has little evidence to cover.

Kent State University quarterback Dustin Crum emphasizes his accuracy, with a third ranked third in target percentage and a ninth ranked completion rate in the seventh attempt. , There is no help from the receiving teammates. Similarly, Nevada’s quarterback Carson Strong was fourth in target percentages and eighth in completion rates in the third most attempts. The higher this volume, the more emphasized his value, but the recipient missed the opportunity. North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell was ranked 6th in the target percentage in his sixth attempt, but with the lowest completion rate, with average accuracy and lack of team connectivity compared to other quarterbacks. I’m emphasizing.

West Kentucky quarterback Bailey Zappe is 7th in target percentage and 3rd in completion rate, showing the most attempts to date and relatively good support from teammates. Similarly, Cynthinaty’s quarterback Desmond Rider was ranked 8th in target percentages and 5th in completion rates and trials, with less accuracy, but the receivers leveraged their capital.

Liberty quarterback Malik Willis is 9th in target percentage and 7th in completion rate, emphasizing lack of volume and sub-average accuracy. Iowa quarterback Brock Purdy is 10th in target percentage and 4th in completion rate, the eighth most attempt to show capitalization of his support cast, despite sub-average accuracy. It was a tie.

The rest of the players had a lot of hope overall. Kaleb Eleby, a quarterback in West Michigan, was ranked 11th in target percentage, 10th in completion rate, and 8th in trials. Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral ranked last in the target percentage and 11th in the completion percentage in the fourth most attempt.

Quarterbacks have various properties that support the cast and defense faced, so it is important to consider the level of competition. Next, let’s look at the percentage of touchdowns and intercepts.

Willis has the highest percentage of touchdowns, the highest percentage of intercepts, more than double that of other players, and sees many precedents for the highs and lows of his game. Coins are ranked second in touchdown rate, but have the third highest intercept rate.

The number of touchdowns for Purdy, Picket and Strong is over 30% and the ball was processed without a pass cut. The results of the latter two players are particularly impressive given the high number of trials.

Zappe and Ridder had a high touchdown rate of 20, with similar interception results. It is important to remember that the former was much more tried.

Clam and Thompson also had no interception in the red zone and had a touchdown rate of 20 or higher, the former result was more voluminous and the higher the touchdown rate, the more impressive it was.

Howell, Coral, and Ellerby have very similar touchdown rates, with Coral having the second highest interception rate, Howell the fourth highest interception rate, and Ellerby having the least of three attempts without interception.

Next, let’s overlay the context with those who have seen more pressure, along with the percentage of bags in the red zone.

The most pressured quarterback to date was Howell, who added context (although not a complete excuse) to the results so far and ranked 11th in the percentage of bags. Thompson has the second highest pressure percentage and the fifth lowest bag percentage, emphasizing good situational awareness, especially with zero interception. Clam and Ellerby were under high pressure and fired. This is an important context layer after viewing without interception, the former has a higher touchdown rate. Coan was pressured above the average rate and added some positive context to previous results, but the percentage of bags was the fourth highest.

The rest of the players were under pressure in less than 30% of the time, so they landed in the upper left corner of the graph and the percentage of bags was low. This is an important context when considering all the data, and in low pressure situations it clearly sets the passersby for the expected success. Among the players in this group, Purdy was the most pressured with the third highest percentage of bags. Pickett, Corral, Ridder and Willis are all under similar rates and Pickett’s results so far stick out really positive with the lowest sack rate, no interception, high touchdown rate and highest target rate. I am! Ridder and Willis landed in much the same way on the graph, winning the most sack in the group.

The least pressured quarterbacks are Strong and Zappe, which, of course, have a low percentage of sack and are in the most ideal pocket. This is an important context when considering all the data.

Finally, we show a total value view using the expected additional points (EPA) and points earned per trial. This is defined as the sum of the player’s EPA responsibilities for the pass using the total points system, which distributes credits to all players on the field. Given play. The total is scaled up to map to the average points earned or allowed at the team level, and the player’s snap count determines the amount to adjust. For passers-by, this includes offensive line play, sack, off-target passes, dropped passes, and accounting for dropped intercepts.

Pickett landed at the top as I expected to learn from the data, ranked top in the points earned, and ranked third in the EPA / att. The points earned in the EPA / att are tied in 2nd and 5th place, and the overall data is strong. He wasn’t under much pressure, but he wasn’t very accurate, had a high touchdown rate, and didn’t have a lot of intercepts or sack. Both men have large sample sizes and are encouraging. It’s interesting to see if the NFL’s defense can carry on this success.

Purdy was top ranked in the EPA / att and third in points earned with a small number of trials, but the data suggest that the receiver really helped him last season, despite the low target percentage. I am. He had a high touchdown rate, no interception, and a low sack rate given the average pressure he faced. Coan was 5th in points earned and 5th in EPA / att, and although he was successful with a high accuracy rate and touchdown rate with a low number of trials, he had an intercept and took a sack at a high rate.

Ridder is 4th in points earned and 8th in EPA / att in the 5th most trials, under pressure at below average rates with below average accuracy, moderate touchdown and intercept rates. , Taken more sack. Zappe was 4th in EPA / att and 6th in points earned in the most attempts to date, was fired with pressure at a low rate, but was more moderate in accuracy, touchdown, and interception. I got the result.

Thompson was second in the EPA / att and seventh in the points earned in one of the lower sample sizes, accurate, without interception, and despite the high pressure rate, the sack rate was low, The touchdown rate is now lower. Willis is 7th in the EPA / att and 11th in the fewest trials, with a striking touchdown to intercept ratio, inaccurate and under pressure at below average rates. , Taken more sack.

The remaining players were below average at both data points. Clam was 9th in points earned and EPA / att, and he was under high pressure, accurate and uninterrupted, but fired at high rates and had a low touchdown rate. rice field. Coral is ranked 10th in points earned and 11th in EPA / att, with the lowest target rate, the second lowest touchdown rate and the fourth, while being pressured by below-average rates and low sack rates. The intercept rate was the second highest in many trials.

Ellerby was last ranked in points earned (only negative number) with a low sample size and ranked 10th in the EPA / att. There was no interception, only slightly above average, but the accuracy was low, the touchdown rate was the lowest, and the sack was the best. percentage. Howell was last ranked 8th in the EPA / att with wide margins and points earned. The data support the previous opinion that last season’s support cast was weak and the completion rate was the lowest, but the target rate was average, the touchdown rate was low, and the interception was the fourth highest. Percentage, and the percentage of the second worst bag with a maximum pressure rate of over 50%!

What do you think of the red zone data for this year’s quarterback draft outlook? Thank you for reading and let us know what you think in the comments!

– NFL Sports

2022 NFL Draft Quarterback Outlook: Red Zone Performance Survey 2022 NFL Draft Quarterback Outlook: Red Zone Performance Survey

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