Business & Investment

Bitcoin price will not fall below $ 33,000 for a long time

In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin prices have skyrocketed from $ 31,000 to $ 34,800, then reversed the course and lost most of these profits.

On January 25, President Joe Biden announced his intention to reduce the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package. This can reduce the incentive for those who buy BTC as a hedge against inflation or a hedge against the devaluation of the US dollar against major world currencies.

Short-term charts may not reflect Bitcoin’s optimism, but various derivative indicators and major trader streams leave no room to expect prices below $ 30,000.

Major traders bought autumn

Bitcoin is testing support for $ 30,800, but the Bulls have shown aggressive buying activity below that level. Not surprisingly, both MicroStrategy (USD MSTR) and Marathon Patent Group (USD MARA) have recently announced major purchases.

The data show that major OKEx traders are buying in bulk due to the decline and futures contract premiums do not reflect excessive leverage from buyers.

Expiration on January 29 will eliminate $ 4.9 billion in futures contracts, or 47% of total open interest of $ 10.5 billion.

It’s annoying at first, but most of these contracts are usually renewed. This includes $ 1.53 billion for OKEx, $ 875 million for CME and $ 840 billion. Binance..

Currently long traders can buy longer contracts as soon as they close their January futures positions. Therefore, both parties can keep their bets open, regardless of whether they are underwater or not, as long as sufficient margin is deposited.

Recent sellouts may have been important, but professional traders are less susceptible to price fluctuations of 12%. This hypothesis is especially true given the 120% annual volatility of Bitcoin.

Since January 22nd, Binance’s top traders have maintained a stable and balanced position, but began adding longs early on January 25th. This trend continued on January 26th, with indicators now supporting long (buyer) 13%. Binance’s top traders have an average monthly long-to-short position ratio below 1.20.

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Futures premium held in the last three fall

When it comes to futures premiums, traders should expect an annual premium of 10% to 20% compared to regular spot exchanges in healthy markets. This indicator should be comparable to the return of stablecoin deposits.

As long as this indicator remains below that range, it should be considered a vigilant sign. In addition, a sustainable foundation of over 20% shows excessive buyer leverage, creating the potential for chain liquidation and a final market crash.

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Bitcoin price will not fall below $ 33,000 for a long time Bitcoin price will not fall below $ 33,000 for a long time

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