BP’s Best: Is Ace Underrated? – MLB Sports

This article was originally published on October 1st.

what if Shane Bieber Have you decided to take a different path in your life? What if he calls his cousin Justin (I know, it doesn’t really matter) and says, “Hey, can I go on a tour with you?” And it will be the roadie of the most relevant cultural icon of 2017. Beaver completed the American League pitching “triple crown” (as far as this strange season means), recording the most pitching wins, the lowest ERA, and most strikeouts of any pitcher in the AL. .. What would Cleveland do without him?

Some people are wondering, “Did you forget the WAR (P)?” Yes. I know about WAR (P). The question I asked is the conceptual basis of WAR (P). But does WAR (can I just call it it?) Model the question it is asking properly? The way WAR traditionally evaluates pitchers (and how players are placed at that point) is the same as what players actually did, based on a mathematically constructed “would” baseline. It’s about comparing the performance that the team “would have gained” in playtime. I got it. If Shane Bieber If you throw 200 innings, multiply the “exchange level” performance by the number of times 200 innings or 800 batters faced.

It’s not a terrible model. That may be almost correct. Sure, it’s better than before, but are there any holes in the model that need to be fixed? The beaver start is assumed to have been covered by a fringe triple A callup, or a long relief turn starter or waver wire. Prodigy.. However, there are assumptions burned into it that don’t really apply. Our fake beavers may get the same number of starts as Justin … well, you might face Shane, or the same number of batters, but the fake beavers are real beavers (who?) Not as good, so you probably won’t record the same number of outs. One way pitchers can show quality is to record outs. It’s … part of the way to win the game. This means that even after the same number of batters, the replacement starter still has something to do with the bullpen.

There is also the issue of sample selectivity. The beaver throws 6 times. Our replacement starter? It may not be. In fact, beavers are deeply involved in the game as a result of their excellence.Manager removes SP6 from the game Before They are especially stinking.

What I want to do is split into two parts and gut check the WAR for beginners. Today, I would like to quantify the value not in terms of how the pitcher performs on the stat line, but in terms of how much the pitcher contributes. Win the game..Next time we will talk about alternative starters Do not Affects the chances of a team winning.

warning! Gory’s mathematical details first!

We used data from 2015 to 2019 to identify the 150 pitchers who recorded the most outs. As a starter.. Then I sorted them by xFIP into 30 layers (because it was easy considering how to set the data). The top 30 are SP1, numbers 31-60 are SP2, and so on. Everyone else who wasn’t in the Top 150 was a “starter of exchange”.

This is more tricky than you think. Sabermetrics describes 95% of sample bias and 5% long division. I have tried some wrinkles on all of these. I also used the number of starts instead of outs. I tried to sort within the team and get the hierarchy. I tried using the recorded outs as the basis for sorting instead of xFIP. The result was basically the same.

What I was most interested in was the winning percentage of the pitcher team when the starting pitcher finished the match. For those wondering why I’m binning a group of pitchers, winning percentage depends heavily on the team’s attack, so using individual pitchers confuses that pitcher with the team’s attack. I will. If you look at a larger group of pitchers, you can see a wider pattern.

Before entering the pitcher bin, I checked another graph. This graph shows the average win rate of the pitching team at the end of the starter as a function of the number of outs recorded by the starter. (As a check, I also checked the frequency of the team actually I won, and the lines matched well. )

You can see that the starter hasn’t actually started building the winning percentage of the team until it reaches 15th (5 innings). Before that, the winning percentage will be about 25%.If you can’t even give to your team Five and dive, They may still win, probably because the other starters are also unexploded.

Tier (by xFIP) Average out recorded by the starter Percentage of games with at least 15 outs recorded Average win rate at the starter exit Average number of runs of opponents who gave up at the exit
Top 30 18.33 88% 59% 2.25
31-60 17.42 84% 52% 2.58
61-90 16.95 82% 50% 2.66
91-120 16.69 79% 48% 2.77
121-150 16.33 76% 46% 2.95
Exchange 13.83 56% 43% 2.79

(Note: Since the concept of “The Opener” has emerged in the last few years, the start of a “exchange” may include some intentional start of one inning, using the 2010-2014 dataset. I re-performed the same analysis — before the opener was widely discussed — and again, I got almost the same answer).

Ace pitchers leave the game with an average 16 percent higher win rate than exchange pitchers. Also (not by accident), 4.5 or more outs. With more than 30 starts, that alone is 4.8 wins over the replacement starter. But those 4.5 outs are important. Again, pitchers are not randomly removed from the game. Managers, at their discretion, choose a time when the pitcher has enough and is no longer an asset of the team’s chances. If you regularly force the replacement starter to have the same number of outs as the ace starter, the results can get worse. It’s impossible to know how bad it is, especially because the pitcher was removed, but on average our replacement starters have already abandoned half a run and half the work in one inning. And now they are tired and are on their third trip through ordering. This probably won’t work.

It’s also worth pointing out. The gap between a top-notch starter and a replacement starter is a 16-point win rate per start.With top tier 2nd layer 7 points. Really good starters are probably far ahead of the “field” than we admit to them.

That 4.8 wins seems to be pretty much right for someone in the top 30 starters as a WAR value. From that point of view, WAR seems to be checking out. But we don’t consider the issue of two big negative spaces. The WAR compares a regular starter to what the entire replacement starter actually did. There is no way to explain what they did if they had to put the same load on a regular starter. It also does not take into account the secondary impact of added bullpen workloads, both in-game and during the season. What are the effects of innings that the bullpen does not need to throw?

Both of these effects should be assumed to add value to the behavior of the ace pitcher and, as a result, further increase their value. Next time, I’ll talk about the magnitude of the effect and whether ace pitchers (and generally good starters) are far more valuable than we give them credit.

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BP’s Best: Is Ace Underrated? BP’s Best: Is Ace Underrated?

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