How has the scientific consensus on the anthropogenic nature of climate change evolved over the last decade?
Scientific support for the link between human activity and climate change has now been strengthened to the extent that almost universal consensus can be reached. Whereas in 1996, he reported a statement hedged with phrases such as “The balance of evidence suggests …” (Houston et al 1996), this evolved as follows: Recent observations of “the 20th century” (Qin et al., 2014) and “human influence on the climate system is now an established fact” (2021 IPCC Technical Overview).
A new treatise from an international team of researchers published today Environmental research letter Let’s look at how the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) has evolved over the last decade. A research study led by Christa Myers and Peter Doran of Louisiana State University, John Cook of Monash University, John Cocher and Teresa A. Myers of George Mason University is based on the results of a geoscientist survey conducted in September 2019. I am. Follow the trajectory of a similar survey conducted by Doran & Kendall Zimmermann in 2009.
“There are many studies that find consensus among climate scientists, but they are accurate about how consensus evolves over time and how different definitions of climate expertise shape that view. There is little research, “explains John Cook. “This is the first time that the 2009 survey methodology has been replicated to measure how climate consensus has strengthened over time.”
Of the 10,929 geoscientists invited to the survey, 2,780 responded. Across all definitions of climate expertise, survey responses have shown that there is a strong and firm consensus among geoscientists that the Earth’s temperature is warming primarily due to human activity.
Of all the survey respondents (n = 2,548) who answered the main questions about the causes of global warming, 91.1% said that the global warming was mainly due to human activity. This is about 11 percentage points higher than the 80% agreement found in the 2009 survey when asking a similar question about AGW. In addition, the authors say that 100% of the most actively published climate experts, that is, those who published more than 20 climate treatises between 2015 and 2019, are artificial in global warming. I discovered that I admit that there is.
“The findings show a total increase in consensus. The findings also reaffirm that consensus grows with the level of expertise. The more we know about climate science, the more humans know about climate change. Almost 100% of our most professional group of scientists who identify as climate scientists and actively publish in the reviewed literature are more likely to understand that they are responsible for. I fully agree that climate change is a reality and is caused by humans, “says Peter Doran.
Analyzing the responses by subdiscipline, the authors found that those who self-identified as economic geologists had the lowest level of consensus, with 84.1% agreeing to AGW. A 2009 Doran and Kendal Zimmerman survey also found that economic geologists were the most skeptical, but the agreement with AGW was much lower at 47%, with consensus among the subgroups over the last decade. It shows that it has increased significantly. The authors also found a significant increase in the level of consensus on AGW among self-aware people as meteorologists — 64% of 2009 studies to 91% of 2019 studies. NS.
The authors “given the lasting gap between expert consensus on anthropogenic global warming and public understanding, efforts to engage and educate people on the scientific consensus on climate change. Strengthening is essential. Such efforts are essential to help our society make more informed decisions about how to stabilize our climate. “
Reference: “Reexamination of Consensus: Quantification of Scientific Consensus on Climate Change and Climate Expertise Between Earth Scientists 10 Years Later” October 20, 2021 Environmental research letter..
DOI: 10.1088 / 1748-9326 / ac2774
Do scientists still believe in anthropogenic (artificial) climate change?
https://scitechdaily.com/consensus-revisited-do-scientists-still-believe-in-anthropogenic-human-caused-climate-change/ Do scientists still believe in anthropogenic (artificial) climate change?