Business & Investment

Equity market professionals have a hard time imagining the slump in the 2021 S & P 500.

Goodbye, 2020. Hello, 2021.

Based on analysts’ ambitious year-end goals for the S & P 500 Index, this is a positive and potentially upward Superman style in the US stock market next year.

Equity market analysts surveyed by MarketWatch for this report predict investors are heading to a critical stage of recovery from the worst pandemics of more than a century and, as new, retreating from current levels. not. President-elect under President-elect Joe Biden takes a presidential vow on January 20.

For some companies like Tesla, there are concerns that the valuations, especially the values ​​of large-capital technology companies, may be at perfect prices.
+ 2.44%
Representing Wall Street’s paradigm of anxiety over the market bubble, many expect stocks to move in only one direction next year: towards the sky.

read: The stock market is rich, but can be at a “much more reasonable valuation level than traditional indicators suggest”

Analysts are worried about the idea that the bull market for stocks has been exhausted and instead offer a profit estimate at the end of 2021 and, in some cases, to be eye-opening in the next 12 months. I’m predicting a strong backlash.

JPMorgan Chase’s Dubravko Lakos-Bujas undoubtedly provides one of the gravity-defying predictions at 4,400 on the S & P 500. This represents a breathtaking surge of nearly 19% in the Benchmark Index.

To see it, S & P 500
+ 0.35%

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has already recorded an almost 15% increase in 2020
+ 0.23%

The technology-intensive Nasdaq Composite Index is expected to rise 6% year-to-date.
+ 0.26%

We are on track to reach a 43% increase in 2020. And don’t even embark on the tremendous rise achieved by major stock benchmarks from the March 23 lows this year.

And MarketWatch asked this year not only bullish like Dubravko Lakos-Bujas and a few other strategists, but the entire equity analyst community is having a hard time imagining a world where the S & P 500 will fall next year. ..

S & P 500 Year End 2021 Analyst Target



Target 2021

Dubravko Lakos-Bujas

JP Morgan Chase


Christina Hooper



David Costin

Goldman Sachs


John Storzfas



Craig Johnson

Piper Sandler Company


Bryan Bellsky



Keith hoodie



Maneesh Deshpande



Julian Emmanuel



Sam Stover



Binky Chada

Deutsche Bank


Mike Wilson

Morgan Stanley


Darrell Kronk

Wells Fargo Investment Institute


Tobias Lefkovich



Savita Subramanian



Barry Banister


3,800 (Spring / Summer)

Source: Company

According to FactSet data, the median year-end price target for the 2021 S & P 500 Index is 4,027.21, up about 9% from the closing price of the broader market index for the week with shortened holidays as of noon Thursday. past.

Source: FactSet

Perhaps a year after being hurt by the immense tragedy of the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s hard to blame the almost unrestrained enthusiasm for what lies ahead in 2021.

Overall, the United States reported a total of 18,495,851 cases and 326,871 deaths as of noon Thursday. Data from the Johns Hopkins University Show.. What’s more, more than 22 million people lost their jobs during the worst epidemics in the United States, kneeling the economy.

Maintaining one of the more optimistic 2021 market outlooks, Christina Hooper is federal ready to block all past and future purchases as the development of COVID vaccines and treatments becomes bullish. It is a scheme and will continue to monetize US federal debt by buying bonds at 0% until at least 2023, which stated that it vowed to stabilize interest rates nearby.

“We expect widespread distribution of the vaccine to generate a lot of profit in the first half of 2021, ignoring strong economic expansion,” Hooper told MarketWatch in an email Thursday afternoon. “Also, the Fed will continue to be very accommodative and should support risky assets, especially equities,” she said.

CFRA’s Sam Stovall is relatively calm in assessing the 4,080 stock outlook as 2021’s S & P 500 target approaches the median FactSet range.

“There’s a lot of optimism,” Stovall told MarketWatch in reference to the 2021 research outlook report, the Fed’s expectations of monetary easing and further government financial assistance to keep the fragile economic recovery on track. He states that the goal is justified by his wishes. Outbreak of virus on the rope.

“As we approach the dawn of 2021, there are many optimistic views,” he writes. “The new administration will be set up at the beginning of the new year and will provide the prospect of additional fiscal stimulus, along with the Federal Reserve, which the United Parliament may support and promises to do” whatever is needed. “He said. Mentions the now well-known pledge of former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in 2012 to keep the euro in the midst of the eurozone debt crisis.

BTIG’s Julian Emanuel and Michael Chu say next year will represent a spectacular “wealth redistribution.” In this case, small caps outperform large caps, their value beats growth on an annual basis, and undervalued stocks have longer fallow periods. Its dynamics are likely to bring about a wider market, pair forecasting.

BTIG describes it as follows:

Excer PTB TIG 2021 Outlook

Global synchronous growth, supported by central bank easing and Washington, which sees the apparently mixed outcome of the 2020 elections as a catalyst for cooperation (expenditure, need) and the centrist government (no tax increase), 2003- 06 A reflation period of outperforming value that results in a redistribution of wealth consistent with the same period. Growth, small caps outperformed large caps, international equities outperformed S & P 500.

However, it’s worth noting that stock analysts weren’t even close to Mark in their 2020 forecasts, assuming the S & P 500 is maintaining current levels through next week’s holiday abbreviation trading.

Piper Sandler’s Craig Johnson was closest to last year’s S & P 500’s current 3,700 range forecast, with an initial year-end target of 3,600 in 2020. Reported by Chris Matthews of MarketWatch.. Based on Piper’s modeling, Johnson estimates that the 2021 S & P 500 will end at 4,225.

“But I don’t expect to get there in a straight line,” he told MarketWatch in a LinkedIn message.

To be fair, pandemics are difficult to predict, and by the end of March few would have been able to adequately measure how the market would react to the public health crisis. Certainly some of the market participants lurking there suggest that the market lows test is still near. here April and Last may..

But, MarketWatch columnist Mark HulbertHe added that equity market forecasts are “not an investment roadmap” and that they are primarily marketing documents for fund managers.

The Bespoke Investment Group offers a more frank view of its own view of equity market forecasts.

“We don’t pretend to know where S & P will trade in 12 months. Wall Street strategists’ goals are almost always wrong,” BIG said in a 2021 outlook report. writing.

“The whole game of strategists presenting year-end goals every year reminds me that Charlie Brown is trying to kick football. Over and over again, he tries to get it right, but every time. Lucy has other plans. ”

last week

In the future, there will be few US economic calendars for the final week of 2020. This is omitted as much of the world has a New Year on Friday.

TuesdayInvestors monitor the October S & P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9am Eastern Standard Time. Wednesday Read the report on pre-trading of goods at 8:30 pm, manufacturing activity in the Chicago area at 9:45 am, and hold home sales at 10 am.

Last day of week and year Thursday Conclude with a report on unemployed billing every week at 8:30 am

Equity market professionals have a hard time imagining the slump in the 2021 S & P 500. Equity market professionals have a hard time imagining the slump in the 2021 S & P 500.

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