The Padres and Rays got a lot of attention last night as they are rapidly becoming a holiday tradition. Blake SnellFormer Cy Young Award-winning Rays ace Dennis Lynn, Josh Trentino and Ken Rosenthal head to San Diego First reported.. The Padres are sending back a swarm of both prospective and major leaguer players. Luis Patino, Francisco Mejia, Break hunt,and Cole Wilcox..
When the two teams last connected, Snell Virally important Overview of Tampa Bay’s Permanent Strategy: Trade players one year too early, rather than one year too late, prioritizing team management and pre-arbitration salaries over current production.Last year it was Tommy PhamThe $ 7 million arbitration forecast didn’t work in Tampa. This time, Snell himself is a financial sacrifice. The extension he signed before 2019 remains $ 40.8 million in three years. This is a phenomenal bargain for employers and too expensive for a penny pinch raise.
Snell will soon be the best pitcher in the Padres rotation. Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies, MacKenzie Gore and MacKenzie Gore’s interesting outlook sampler platter Adrian Morejon.. Mike Clevinger After undergoing Tommy John’s surgery, he misses 2021, but he returns in 2022 to co-star in a spectacular rotation.
Snell may never regain overall production for the 2018 Cy Young season (1.89 ERA, 221 strikeouts in 180.2 innings), but despite being a shorter chain than many elite pitchers, he Has consistently been excellent over the last few years. His strikeout rate has remained almost unchanged: 31.6% in 2018, 33.3% in 2019 and 31% in 2020. His walking rate is also consistent, 9.1%, 9.1% and 8.9%, respectively.
Putting it all together gives you a solid and reliable pitcher. Run prevention is inherently unstable, but both xFIP and SIERA, which try to get rid of events outside the pitcher’s control in different ways, believe Snell is consistently just as good. Both have been scaled to resemble ERA, with xFIP of 3.06 to 3.31 and SIERA of 3.30 to 3.57 over the last three years, both of which are excellent. There is nothing unstable about his superiority either. He missed a ton of bats, hit in the late 90’s and boasts two excellent breaking balls.
Only stamina is missing from Snell’s resume. He made more than 13 6 innings in 2018, the last time he was really deeply involved in the game. He did it only twice in 2019, when his injuries were shortened, not as much as seven in 2020.Kevin Cash Pulled Snell In the World Series, it was a controversial decision, but one cash went all year round.
About Snell’s short start: Who cares? A starter with 7 innings in most cases is a luxury, but it’s never necessary. The trade-off is not between 6 innings from Snell and 7 innings from some fictional ace. It’s between 6 from Snell and 6 from any starter that San Diego would have called instead. Padres plays a game that Snell wants to put in a tank a little more, but he doesn’t get a pitcher because of his seventh pitching ability. You earn him for his ability to consistently prevent running when he is on the mound, which Snell clearly has.
The Padres won the series in this year’s playoffs, but despite the starting pitcher, the Padres won. Paddack and Davis each started in the first round, but Clevinger and Ramet were injured and pushed aside. Craig Stammen As part of the bullpen game, we made our first start since 2010. It was enough to win the series, but it shows a clear opportunity for improvement. Snell is one of the 30 best pitchers in baseball and can now handle one or two starts per playoff round.
In fact, at the Major League Baseball level, this deal is basically a pure upside for next year’s San Diego. Patinho is a great talent, Top 10 outlook for baseball overallBut at the age of 21, he threw 20 innings against a major league match. He is likely to get better in 2021, but by 2020 he was only throwing 7 innings on the A-ball. Everything he offers in next year’s Big League is an unexpected benefit. Wilcox and Hunt are also years away from contributing to the big league team.
When it comes to media, he often reminds us that prospects don’t always turn out to be what we expect. When Padres replaced him in 2018, he was a top 50-ish prospect and a sophisticated offensive catcher with half-hearted skills behind the plate. His hit tool has not yet been translated into majors. Austin Nola In San Diego, he was issued for this year’s backup mission. Padres will miss him, but only a few. That doesn’t mean he’s worthless — players of the Messiah pedigree don’t grow up in trees, and he may be one adjustment from fulfilling the promises he made in the Cleveland system. But for San Diego, he is a surplus.
So if you raise, why make this deal? It’s money. Snell is definitely a great player and he is definitely a bargain. All 30 baseball teams have added Blake Snell to the roster under current terms and conditions, and are ecstatic about it, including Tampa Bay. However, to build a team like Tampa Bay, at least primarily, you can’t build a team from the Blake Snell type. The lifeline of the Tampa Bay system was the pre-arbitration player, and Snell was the latest trade chip that Raise could utilize for more potential pre-arbitration stars.
Imagine creating a roster that can compete with the best baseball teams for less than $ 70 million, as Raise does consistently. Most teams jumped at the opportunity to replace the rotation with five clones of Snell, but Raise couldn’t run out of the entire team at that price due to extreme budget restrictions. For their system to work, it requires many contributors to pay close to the league’s minimum salary.
Permanently competing under these voluntary constraints adds some difficulty to juggling. Snell himself was once one of the Pre-Absters where Tampa built their wasted empire, and the team hopes Patinho will play that role in the future. Analysts and teams have recently been discussing in terms of surplus value, but Tampa Bay’s comical low wages mean that there are additional criteria to meet. ..
Without that constraint, Snell’s trading would be meaningless. Raise has just played in the World Series.They are good just now.. They have not been rebuilt or demolished. Next year, they will try to win the World Series again. It is clear that teams of their talent level should not deduct elite pitching.
Think of it in a ridiculously abstract sense and throw some stadium numbers at it. Let’s say Blake Snell creates $ 100 million in field value over the next three years, with a surplus of $ 40 million and $ 60 million. In addition, let’s assume that during his six years of team management, Patinho will create $ 70 million in field value at the expense of $ 20 million in salary and $ 50 million in surplus.
In a vacuum, it’s a bad deal for the Snell team. However, if you desperately have to pay only $ 20 million, Patiño is a clear choice, even if it means giving up the surplus value defined by a neutral observer.
In fact, Rays lives on such deals. Rumor has it that they won’t win every deal, but they pursue a general strategy wherever possible. Every turn, Tampa Bay seeks value from players that can be controlled at bargain basement rates for extended periods of time. Of course, they also focus on production, but given the budget games they choose to play, the salary must be king. If you want to compete for 10 years with the minimum wage player, you need to acquire and develop as many promising prospects as possible.
It’s unclear if the shortened season forced Tampa Bay’s Snell trade. Regardless of the details of the deal, Raise could always deal with someone like Snell. They could always look for returns like what they got — a likely stud performer and an interesting outlook sampler platter. It may be a daunting time for the franchise, and it may fit strangely into the winning curve, but it’s all noise compared to the need to push chips in time and towards cheaper players.
From their point of view, Padres won the deal. They flipped the extras for future assets and one of the best pitchers in baseball. With Snell’s contract, depending on your thoughts on Patinho, they also come roughly in surplus value (Eric Longenhagen analyzed that part of the deal). here).
And then their From a point of view, Rays won the deal. No matter what you think about their long-term strategy, executing such a deal is an important way to keep it going. Raise did not reach where they were by maintaining Blake Snell in the world, and they do not suddenly change plans overnight. Patinho may or may not succeed, but in general turning a good situation (a Cy Young Award winner with a $ 13 million contract a year) into the team control money needed for competition. But it’s the only way to keep the ship afloat. This is the way you choose to steer it.
One day we can discuss the health of the Rays system. However, let’s leave it as it is for now. Both San Diego and Tampa Bay have accomplished what they wanted to do badly in yesterday’s deal.As Jeffrey Paternostro Put it so eloquently, You can have two separate ideas in mind at the same time.
Both sides are happily leaving the deal, which they are happy with what they have accomplished. From a very narrow perspective on how to maximize long-term wins under financial coercion, Rays got what they wanted here.Meanwhile, what did Padres get? Everyone Wanted — a great pitcher for years. Which of the two should the purpose of a competitive baseball team be? I will leave it as an exercise for the reader.
– MLB Sports
For those who suffer from Snell
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-whom-the-snell-toils/ For those who suffer from Snell