First, last week’s event review:
— EUR / USD.. Since the launch of the COVID-19 pandemic in March last year, the dollar has fallen and the EUR / USD pair has risen accordingly. And now it’s not too far from the first quarter 2018 highs. Indeed, the results for the last three weeks can be considered zero. And that responsibility is not only for Christmas and New Year’s holidays, but also for rising yields on US Treasury bonds, coupled with a hawkish statement from the Fed’s representatives.
Ten years ago, yields on US Treasuries skyrocketed and raised the dollar after President Biden and the majority of Senate Democrats were certified. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Governor Thomas Birkin said the growth in Treasury yields supports investors’ desire to raise US dollar interest rates, and Patrick Harker, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The QE program shrinkage may begin in the second half of 2021. This significantly reduced the appetite of the bulls who began to close their long positions at EUR / USD, resulting in the pair ending the week at 1.2225.
— GBP / USD.. The storm associated with the signing of the UK’s Brexit agreement has subsided, and the GBP / USD pair has taken a breather following the EUR / USD. After reaching a high of 1.3705 on January 4, by the end of the week, it returned to the places it had already visited in mid-to-late December, ending at 1.3560.
— USD / JPY.. Three weeks ago, we predicted the movement of the pair from the centerline to the upper edge of the medium-term route, which slides smoothly south from the end of March 2020. This is exactly what happened. After bouncing back at the centerline twice on January 4th and 5th, the pair soared and approached the upper boundary of the channel at 104.10 on January 8th. A small pullback followed and it froze at 103.95. The 104.00 zone has been a strong support / resistance level for the past four months, from which the pair has repeatedly bounced in one or the other.
-Cryptocurrency. Twelve years ago, on January 3, 2009, an individual or group nicknamed Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main Bitcoin network and mined the 50 BTC Genesis block. A few days later, on January 12, the first Bitcoin transaction took place. Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Halfini. And recently, in July 2020, Whale Alert’s Twitter account posted information that Nakamoto managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC before the mysterious disappearance more than 10 years ago. Today, when Bitcoin reaches the $ 41,000 mark, the value of these coins exceeds $ 45 billion, making Nakamoto 25th among the wealthiest people on the planet.
Here, in fact, we have already announced the most important news last week: the main cryptocurrency quote exceeded $ 41,000 on Friday, January 8th. Therefore, in just five weeks from December 2020, each BTC coin has increased by 115% heavy.
This pleases miners as well as investors. December turned out to be the most successful month of the last three years. According to analytics service Block Research, miners’ total revenues in December reached $ 692 million, equivalent to nearly $ 1 million per hour.
Currently, the cryptocurrency mining market is dominated by China, which, according to some estimates, accounts for more than 50% of the world’s hash rates. Ripple’s manager even called it China-controlled Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptocurrencies.
By the way, about Ripple. Last week and a half gave the owner of this altcoin some hope. Recall that the XRP / USD pair, starting November 24th, was steadily declining while the prices of the remaining top coins were rising. It started at $ 0.77 and fell to $ 0.17 by the end of 2020, down 78%.
But this is not all. The biggest disaster in the futures market was waiting for Ripple. On December 23, the price of the March futures contract for this token fell to $ 0.00023 on the BitMEX derivatives platform. Investors sold 80 million coins per minute. This is how the market responded to a US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proceeding accusing the startup of illegally selling securities for $ 1.3 billion under the guise of XRP.
Currently, the situation is somewhat stable and the January 8th XRP / USD is estimated at $ 0.31. It has also made a profit of 1350% in the last two weeks if traders pre-ordered to buy Ripple at the lowest price.
Going back to the main cryptocurrencies, of course, their volatility isn’t as cosmic as Ripple, but it’s still impressive, reaching 10% per hour. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in a very overbought zone: 95 out of 100. But nevertheless, following the BTC / USD estimate, total crypto market capitalization continued to grow steadily, reaching $ 1.1 trillion. At the same time, the Bitcoin dominance index was close to 70%.
Next week’s forecast is a compilation of the opinions of many experts and is based on a variety of technical and graph analysis methods.
— EUR / USD.. A week ago, analysts at the world’s largest banks and financial institutions elaborated on how they would see the pair’s rates in 2021. The median forecast is 1.2500, which corresponds to the highs from January to February three years ago.
In the near future, 60% of experts hope that January of this year will be at least a deep enough revision of the pair to the south, if not a reversal month, and will return to the 1.2050 level. Even 1.1900. The closest support is in the 1.2100 zone. However, in terms of indicators, this development was supported by only 80% of the H4 indicators. In D1, both the oscillator and the trend indicator were in the neutral position.
40% of analysts are on the bullish side, supported by H4 and D1 graph analysis. According to them, the pair pushed back from 1.2200 should return to the uptrend and will soon see it at 1.2350. And 1.2500 isn’t too far away.
For next week’s event, the data on the US consumer market released on Wednesday, January 13th and Friday, January 15th is interesting. Federal Chairman Jerome Powell will also give a speech at the end of the work. Weekly, and the market will wait if he confirms the words of his colleagues Thomas Birkin and Patrick Harker on possible rises in interest rates and reductions in quantitative easing (QE) programs.
— GBP / USD.. In general, next week’s or two-week forecasts here are very similar to the euro / dollar forecasts. The D1’s technical indicator provides a neutral or multi-directional signal. 60% of experts, 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators will vote for H4 fall. In addition to its growth, 40% of analysts aim to analyze the remaining indicators of H4 and graphs in both time frames. Support levels are 1.3525, 1.3485 and 1.3285. The next strong support is the 1.3185 zone. The resistance levels are 1.3620 and 1.3725.
For next week’s event, we need to pay attention to the speech by Bank of England Director Andrew Bailey on Monday, January 11th.
— USD / JPY.. The movement of the yen is highly dependent on both investor risk sentiment and the movement of US Treasuries. For now, most analysts (55%) are confident that the pair will stay in the downward mid-term channel, fight above the cap around 104.00 and then return to the central zone. This possibility is confirmed by 25% of oscillators that signal in overbought pairs in H4 and D1. The closest support is 103.65 and the next support is 103.00. The target is in the 102.50 area.
A graph analysis of 35% of experts and D1 votes for the fact that the pair can break through the upper boundary of the specified channel and rise to zone 104.70-105.00. The next target for the bull is 105.70. And finally, the remaining 10% of analysts are neutral, suggesting that the pair fluctuates around pivot point 104.00.
-Cryptocurrency.. Investor optimism was added by the impending power of the Joe Biden administration in the United States. Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital Cryptocurrency Bank, told CNBC that Trump’s team couldn’t stop the record growth of major cryptocurrencies, making financial regulators more loyal under the leadership of the new president. He expressed his hope to take a position. “After taking office [January 20, 2021] Get more progressive regulators. We want to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework to support rather than fight cryptocurrencies, “says Novogratz.
In addition to regulatory restrictions, the entry of large institutional investors into the market is hampered by the extremely high volatility of major cryptocurrencies. Therefore, investment bank JPMorgan experts believe that the image of an alternative to gold will further increase Bitcoin’s popularity and predict growth to $ 146,000. However, this requires the convergence of Bitcoin and gold volatility indicators, which is a “multi-year process”.
Looking at what’s happening with Bitcoin these days, JP Morgan’s quote may seem too conservative for many. According to Pantera Capital’s investment analysis, the market is only a few weeks before Bitcoin’s price reaches $ 115,000. Talking about CNBC, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital Investment Company, called the limited supply of Bitcoin a major driver of the growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. He explained that giants like PayPal and Grayscale are now buying more BTC than Bitcoin miners can mine.
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated $ 14,075 million and $ 1.88 billion in digital assets, respectively. And, according to analyst Kevin Luke, the giant continues to buy Bitcoin, suggesting that grayscale is set for long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currencies. doing.
Another popular analyst, Willie Wu, agrees. In his opinion, it became clear that after Bitcoin crossed the $ 24.000 boundary, the market would eventually be under the control of long-term investors.
Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges, has also raised its forecasts. “I thought the $ 50,000 price was reasonable, but it’s definitely going to be high. By the end of 2021, I think we’ll reach $ 75.000 to $ 100.000 for one BTC,” said Catherine Coley, CEO of the US unit. I am.
And finally, the most daring predictions of the BTC / USD pair, made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and Kraken Bitcoin Exchange CEO Jesse Powell, are both named $ 1 million per coin. I did. However, the former believes this will happen thanks to speculators, and the latter depends on the growth of institutional investment in cryptocurrencies.
For Altcoin No. 1, Ethereum has a capital of over $ 140 billion and is capitalized by major automobile companies such as General Motors ($ 59.5 billion), BMW ($ 47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($ 36.2 billion). It will be many times as much as. .. Capital inflows into ETH will be even more important in 2021, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already devoted to Ethereum. And an important event for this Altcoin is the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME). In general, Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe estimates that a strong recovery in the Altcoin market should begin after the first quarter of this year.
NordFX Analysis Group
Note: These materials are for informational purposes only and are not recommendations or guidelines for investing in working in the financial markets. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in the complete loss of deposited funds.
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Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecasts 11-15 January 2021-Analysis and Forecast-January 9, 2021
https://www.mql5.com/en/blogs/post/742296?utm_campaign=RSS&utm_medium=display&utm_source=MQL5+EN+Blog Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecasts 11-15 January 2021-Analysis and Forecast-January 9, 2021