Gamasutra: Simon Carless’s Blog-Data Request: (Steam) Game Revenue Over Time!

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The ideas and opinions expressed are those of the writer, not Gamasutra or its parent company.

[The GameDiscoverCo game discovery newsletter is written by ‘how people find your game’ expert Simon Carless, and is a regular look at how people discover and buy video games in the 2020s.]

As a result, I haven’t recently posted an “anonymized data call” in the GameDiscoverCo newsletter, but one theme has been covered recently.Sure, let’s say Your game earned $ 50,000 in the first week on Steam..But finally Will the first year be $ 100,000 or $ 250,000???And how about at the end 2nd or 3rd year??

I would like to use all (anonymous and abstracted) data to understand if there is a tendency for revenue scaling / “long tail” or if it is changing over time. .. If you can help (submit data about one or more games!), Fill out this survey now..

We will publish and summarize all the results and publish them for free in the GameDiscoverCo newsletter and Gamasutra. This is similar to the “Steam sales to reviews ratio” and “Steam wishlists to first week sales” data.

Again, Please help us Along Complete a simple surveyPlease tell your friends. The compiled data is reflected.Spread the word-we keep it open Until Friday, November 6th..

Bonus: Results of a previous GameDiscoverCo survey!

Many people are new to the GameDiscoverCo newsletter, so I thought it might be helpful to summarize the two public Steam surveys I’ve done so far.

Check the results quickly to see if the data is still reliable.

“Steam sales to reviews” explained

First, the question, “Looking at the Steam reviews, how much is the game selling?” The results of this particular study can be combined into one convenient graph.

As I said in August 2020: “If we released the game in 2020, the average sales per review was 41, the median sales per review was 38, and the current non-outlier range is 20-60 per review. It seems to be sales. This year, when launching the game from scratch. “

Therefore, a game containing 1,000 Steam reviews released in 2020 could have been sold anywhere in the 20,000-60,000 copies. (Actual total / net sales will vary depending on average selling price, discounts, etc., so we won’t cover them here!)

If you go back in time, as you can see, the ratio is high. This is also because “Are you sure you want to check this?” The Steam prompt displayed at the end of October 2019. But the same button means that more old games that people are still playing on a regular basis are being reviewed, which can distort things.

Anyway, this is the 2020 sales / review ratio for all respondents, and you can see that it’s spreading well.

Within a wider range (for example, 20 to 60 times in the 2020 review), I still feel that this survey is fairly accurate. I’ve heard that large studios have begun to use it for planning, and SteamDB has integrated that version into each game’s detail page (although SteamDB uses the 2020 quotes for all game pages. It was decided).

So I do this survey A- for accuracy, If you do Use range and correct year when expressing possible results!!

He explained that he would steam his wishlist to sales for the first week!

The survey, completed in June 2020, asked people what to do with their wishlist totals compared to first week sales. (Total sales include both wishlist conversions and organic purchases for the week.)

The answers were very diverse and were as follows for all ages / wishlist sizes: (Therefore, in the results of the graph below, 1 is “1000 wishlists at launch, 1000 sales in the first week” and 0.1 is “1000 wishlists at launch, 100 sales in the first week”. ):

As I explained at the time: “For all these games (various ages, some Early Access, some full releases), the average sales per wishlist for the first week on Steam is 0.36 and the median is 0.2, but the graph. As you can see, there are several wide ranges. “

Also, if you divide by the number of wishlists, you will see similar variability in the final result. That’s why Steam says there’s no specific number to “predict” these days. For example, the wishlist / sales ratio for all games released on a wishlist of over 10,000 is:

So, in reality, if you get the majority of the data points, is it somewhere between 0.75 and … 0.05? This was a much wider range than Steam’s “Sales to Reviews” data, and changed only three times.

In addition, I was careful at that time: “One of the slight declines is the two-year wishlist conversion rate, which has the most important survey responses, but 10% in 2019 and 7.3% in 2020.”

We’re hearing more and more about developers making disappointing launches compared to the number of Steam wishlists they’ve created. Especially when added via demo or pre-release Steam features.. Therefore, I think it needs to be re-evaluated here. However, this data does clarify the ceiling and floor.

Therefore, I rate this data Like B- in relevance / accuracy with today’s developers launching Steam games..And I plan to do Additional follow-up survey Those who launched the game in 2020 will be asked for details by the end of the year.

that’s all!Please fill in for now “First Week / First Year” Sales Survey, And look for more newsletters later in the week-be careful.

[This newsletter is handcrafted by GameDiscoverCo, a new agency based around one simple issue: how do players find, buy and enjoy your premium PC or console game? We’ll be launching a ‘Plus’ paid newsletter tier with lots of extra info/data – watch out for it soon.]

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