Business & Investment

Hamish McRae: Growth is coming soon

It’s important every week. Clearly, the sooner the blockade is eased, the faster the economy can recover, and the sooner it happens, the faster the country’s finances will return towards some sort of sustainable equilibrium. is.

But this is not just an economic and financial issue. It also belongs to humans. People are suffering in myriad ways and will continue to suffer until they find a clear path back to normal.

This is a PR device that labels last Monday, the third Monday of January, as the darkest day of the year, Blue Monday. But it rather captures the mood of the moment.

So how do you need to dig into yourself now? 2 points. First, it’s better to plan and change than not to plan at all, but people need to know the plan.

Best bet: The Bank of England said the economy would begin to recover “at a knot rate” in the second quarter of this year as the vaccine was deployed.

Governments often stumble from a well-thought-out policy to another without explaining why. Therefore, it makes sense to ask the government to explain its thoughts on the order of economic resumption.

How far does the infection need to go down and how many people need to be vaccinated? And given the data, what opens first and what follows? People don’t want certainty. They seek common sense.

The second point is that growth is imminent. The secret is for humans to move the economy as quickly as possible.

The Bank of England is doing its best to develop the economy, and chief economist Andy Haldan said last week that it would begin to recover “at a knot rate” from the second quarter of this year, as did vaccines. .. roll out.

The idea was repeated by Governor Andrew Bailey. He said: “I really think there will be a significant economic recovery as the current vaccination program is rolled out.”

They are certainly correct. You can see the horrific death toll every day. There is nothing to remove the misery of those who die before time.

But we don’t know much about how quickly mood changes as infections increase and deaths decrease, or how much lead the UK actually has in launching vaccines against Europe. I don’t think I’m grateful.

We will get a new growth forecast from the World Bank on February 4th. It is significantly more positive than the Budget Responsibility Department and is expected to be even more accurate if the results are known in the next few years.

In the meantime, every week is important. It’s better for everyone because the economy can move safely again faster.

Real Estate Assets: The average price of residential real estate in the UK is currently £ 250,000

Real Estate Assets: The average price of residential real estate in the UK is currently £ 250,000

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Most homeowners never feel rich. The average price of a home in the UK is currently £ 250,000 and the average price in London is £ 500,000. 62% of our homes are owned, which is a huge band of wealth all over the country.

This is welcome if there are no two things. Prices are well above income and many young people are locked out of the market. And the current boom has been driven, at least to some extent, by the stamp duty holidays ending March 31st.

Taking ownership of a home for young people will be the job of a generation. The peak owner occupancy rate of 71% dates back to 2003. To regain lost land, you need to build more affordable homes and set stable prices over the long term.

But dealing with the end of the stamp duty holiday is a problem for now.

The logic behind the holidays is fine. This was an emergency measure designed to prevent blockades that would lead to the collapse of the housing market.

Had it been allowed, it would have had a serious impact on the economy as a whole.

It did the job, maybe it worked pretty well, and now I’ll have to do it. The government is desperately in need of revenue.

But the edge of the cliff for tax cuts is by no means a good idea. There is a big battle to increase sales without the help of investigations, communications, and in some cases delays in probate.

You need a Goldilocks housing market. It’s not too hot, not too cold, just right.

Extending a six-month vacation at half the original rate would be a wise way to shepherd homebuyers and sellers through what would inevitably be a bumpy summer.

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Hamish McRae: Growth is coming soon Hamish McRae: Growth is coming soon

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