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Marcus Semien’s gambling seems to have paid off – MLB Sports

This past offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays have spent huge amounts of money upgrading their lineup George Springer And Marcus Semien A total of $ 168 million. Of course, that total of $ 150 million will be obliged to pay Springer in the next six seasons. Semien signed a one-year contract after discovering that the market for his services was quite slow and cold. But two months after the season, it was Semien that became a more valuable acquisition for Jaze. Springer has been excluded in all but four games and the quad issue has not yet been resolved. Semien, on the other hand, leads all qualified second basemen in the 2.6 WAR. This puts him in 7th place overall among all qualified batters.

For Semien, his success this year was a great return on the risks he took by signing the one-year offer. After the 2019 breakout, he struggled to maintain that new level of production the following year. A real question about his true talent level on the plate remains on him, so he decided to make a one-year offer to rebuild his value in 2021.

As Mike Petriello Recent notesThe aggressive recession that Semien suffered in 2020 can be a bit misleading. Throughout the first 14 games of the 2020 season, he posted 45 wRC +, but due to the season being truncated, these 14 games accounted for about a quarter of all games last year, and his entire line. Had a big impact on.

Throughout the rest of the regular season, Semien had 117 wRC + and added 220 wRC + in seven post-season games. This year he got off to a similar, less dramatic, late start. Throughout 17 games he posted 63 wRC +. Since then, he has shed absolute tears and has produced 172 wRC + in 41 games.If Vladimir Guerrero Junior Semien would easily be the best batter in the Blue Jays lineup, as he hadn’t shattered everything he saw.

Comparing his breakout 2019 season with the truncated section of the 2020 game (remove the first 14 games and add post-season stats) and the 2021 line, his aggressive production has been in the last three years. You can see that it is relatively stable.

Marcus Semien, aggressive production

Year PA K% BB% ISO Hard hit% Barrel% wRC +
2019 703 13.70% 11.60% 0.237 37.20% 7.40% 138
2020 * 202 202 15.35% 13.37% 0.223 31.30% 6.90% 133
2021 269 24.50% 9.30% 0.223 42.20% 8.10% 139

* 2020 stats remove the first 14 games of the season and include post-season stats

To make Semien’s numbers look good, it’s easy to play with a fairly arbitrary range of play since last year. These first 14 games actually happened. They are not just meaningless noise. But looking at his numbers without these 14 games, we can see that Semien’s contact quality has been fairly consistent since his breakout two years ago.

His overall production remains consistent throughout the three periods above, but the way he reaches those results this year is a little different. He recorded a career high in hard hits and barrel rates in 2021 and is pulling the ball at the highest rate since his call in Chicago in 2013. But his plate discipline, which was a huge part of his breakout season in 2019, has made a serious setback. His strikeout rate is over 11 points compared to two years ago. In many respects, his plate discipline metric is very similar to what he did early in his pre-breakout career.

In 2019, Semien’s career year was partially facilitated by a significant drop in his follow-up rate and a high career contact rate. His follow-up rate fell further last year, but his contact rate fell towards his career standards. This year, both of these indicators have returned to their pre-breakout state.

Marcus Semien, Plate Discipline

Year O-swing% Z swing% Z-Contact% contact information% SwStr%
2013-2018 23.20% 62.90% 85.90% 78.50% 9.40%
2019 19.00% 64.10% 89.10% 82.70% 7.20%
2020 17.60% 69.10% 84.20% 78.80% 9.30%
2021 21.10% 66.30% 83.20% 76.20% 10.40%

Both Semien’s contact rate and swing strike rate are the highest since the first coffee in Chicago. Both are better than the league average, and the benefits he earned in the quality of contact offset some of these strikeout problems, but that is certainly a concern that needs to be monitored.

How can this resurrected season help build a second go-around case with a free agent? It is a slightly mixed bag. He did prove that the newly discovered power he showed during his breakout was genuine. But his increased strikeout rate and over-reliance on pulling the ball to generate its PowerPoint is an approach to an approach that may not be very sustainable. Undoubtedly, Semien is on track to sign a large deal if he continues to hit as he has, but with some hurdles to achieving that payday. There are some warning signs that you may present.

To understand what the Semien market will be, it is probably useful to note that many of the rest of the proud next free agent shortstop class were underperformed or injured in 2021.

2022 Free Agent Shortstop

Semien is the oldest in this bunch and has a slightly longer track record of success with the other four famous shortstops heading for free agents, but Semien definitely outperforms them all this year. Corey Seager has been on the sidelines with broken hands for most of May and will not return until July at the earliest. But even before he was injured, his defenses retreated significantly in an instant, and he suffered a month-long slump on the plate. Javier Baez has regained the power he lost last year, but his plate approach continues to deteriorate. Although the power of Trevor Story has diminished this year, he is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. Carlos Correa is great this year and has the best debate (other than Semien) to be the most imminent free agent shortstop in this next class.

Semien has the added benefit of proving that he can play in Nakano’s position with excellent elite defense. His defensive reputation as a shortstop was mixed at best. For his honor, he seems to have made great strides in that regard in recent years. In second baseman this year, he is one of the best defensive infielders in baseball. He is the best defensive second baseman in the American League in DRS (+5) and OAA (+4) and second best in UZR (2.0), but standard for relatively small sample defensive indicators. Warning will be applied.

The class of second baseman who becomes a free agent is surprisingly thin. Caesar Hernandez, Jonathan Scoop,and Jonathan Villar It’s the biggest name on the market — a big step from the list of shortstop and star-studded names. If the team wants to upgrade production with this next offseason Keystone, Marcus Semien is essentially the only premier option. It opens his market considerably and ensures that he does not have to compete with those other four shortstops if he is open to continuing to be second baseman in the future.

His aggressive resurrection and versatility of location should make a much more lucrative trip through free agencies this offseason. His strikeout rate is a real concern and may keep his offensive cap lower than previous results show, but even with a slight shift in his production on the plate, he is with the shortstop. A base that has been proven to be an elite contributor in both second basemen. That’s something no other free agent can claim.

– MLB Sports

Marcus Semien’s gambling seems to have paid off

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/marcus-semiens-gamble-looks-like-it-has-paid-off/ Marcus Semien’s gambling seems to have paid off

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