Business & Investment

Market Time and Market Timing — Gold Mining Stocks

Yesterday, I had an adventure in the rabbit hole …

Rabbit hole in the legal tender system.

Many do not find their way. Most people don’t even know they are in it.

My personal Sherpa was gold. Not only gold mining stocks.

But it’s not without some steep learning curves.

The important lesson is not the timing of the market, but the time to succeed.

That doesn’t mean you can’t time the market. I have great respect for those who try it. And deep praise to those who succeeded in it (not many!).

And today we will resume where we left off …

The gold market since mid-2013 has been on a roller coaster.

I would like to say that doubling my income and savings into gold stocks has led to happiness ever since.

If only!

Do you know the enthusiasm you feel when you first learn something new? Like when you first learn to ride a bike. Or drive a car. Whatever it is, you’ll want to dive in and try it out right away.

In my case, it was then that I first saw what it was, a fraudulent and unsustainable fiat system.

I realized that gold is the only real money. It is rare. Also, it cannot be printed.

It looked so obvious. As a result, I jumped in … and wanted to buy as many gold stocks as possible.

It was very easy to make money. surely?

Ha! of course not.

Please see ASX Gold Index [ASX:XGD] During this period. This is an index of gold mining stocks.

Did investing in gold ahead of further interest rate cuts hit your head? Download the free report now.

Now, you might point out June 2013 and December 2015 as great entry points.

I think there were a few people who chose these points and enjoyed great profits. Bullish, bearish … it wasn’t a problem for these investors. Choose a trend, gain momentum and get out before it changes.

At other camps, fundamental investors (including myself) were initially confused. At first glance, gold inventories were cheaper by late 2014, when the market bottomed out.

In retrospect, these gold stocks were really hit. Throb.

New Crest Mining Co., Ltd. [ASX:NCM] Trading value in December 2013 was less than $ 7, down from the peak of $ 42.66 in April 2011.

And do you remember St. Barbara Co., Ltd. [ASX:SBM] Are you trading for 7 cents in December 2014?

You would have laughed at me at the time if St. Barbara said it could be $ 5 over the next 10 years. (Well, St. Barbara has reached $ 5 … but just four years later, in July 2018.)

The 30 months from July 2013 to December 2015 was a frustrating and sometimes painful journey.

You will see your portfolio and experience moments of recovery, but you will only see a sharp move again.

If you survive this and still remember it, let me ask you some questions:

Did you find encouragement from experts like Eric Sprott, Rick Rule, Peter Schiff, etc.?

They reminded you of the benefits of investing in gold stocks and the need to survive the wave.

They were like an emotional boost when they were discouraged. But before their experience and wisdom became partly real, it felt like it used to be.

Did you read the report and wonder why gold and gold stocks didn’t rise?

And what about the second half of 2014, when companies started to turn around?

I’m glad I did my best. With oil prices halved in late 2014, I was able to continue using “Hopium” (a drug of hope to intoxicate).

Let’s take a look at oil prices in the second half of 2014. This was a big drop, but the plunge in early 2020 only turned negative oil (and toilet paper was more expensive than oil, see figure!).

So what does oil have to do with gold miners?

The machine needs diesel. Lots of it. Higher oil prices keep costs down and reduce shareholder returns and cash flow. With the fall in oil, this fueled gold stocks to rise in price.

Looking back on the bear market, Market timer And the person who did them Time in the market It was brilliantly rewarded.

These stocks were so volatile that market timers could have picked up some profit in short-term trading.

People who spent time in the market were partially rescued by what Rick Rule called “Low-priced treatments are low-priced.”.. Macroeconomic changes in the oil market have also boosted the potential for gold stock cash flow.

In my view, the best winners build their character through adversity.

You will not be strengthened by victory. You will win by building your character.

And it applies to life as well as to invest.

I will leave that remorse for you on the weekends.

Next week, keep an eye out for further thoughts and thoughts on the slip into oblivion of the economy, markets and fiat systems.

Best regards,


Brian Chu signature

Brian Chu,
Editor, Daily Reckoning Australia

PS: I am interested in hearing about your war. Did you live in the bear market for gold in 2013? Or was it another important bear market? If you would like to share your story, please contact me here with the subject “DR War Story”. I want to hear it! ??

Market Time and Market Timing — Gold Mining Stocks

https://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/time-in-the-market-versus-timing-the-market-gold-mining-stocks/2021/04/16/ Market Time and Market Timing — Gold Mining Stocks

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