Along Calculated risk of December 23, 2020 10:14:00 AM
Census Bureau Report New home sales in November were seasonally adjusted annually (SAAR) 841,000.
The last three months have been significantly revised downwards.
Sales of new single-family homes in November 2020 Seasonally adjusted annual rate 841,000According to estimates jointly released today by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 11.0% below the revised October rate of 945,000, 20.8 percent above the November 2019 estimate Of 696,000.
The first graph shows new home sales and recession since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.
In the last five months, it has recorded the highest sales rate since 2006. This is a strong year-on-year growth.
The second graph shows the new housing supply months.
The record high supply in January 2009 was 12.1 months. The record low of 3.5 months is most recently September 2020.
This is the lower limit of the normal range (supply is normal for about 4-6 months).
“The seasonally adjusted estimate for new homes at the end of November was 286,000, which is equivalent to 4.1 months of supply at current sales rates.”
For inventory, Census Bureau:
“If a building permit is issued at the place where the permit is issued, or if work begins on a foundation or foundation in an unlicensed area, no sales contract is signed, and no deposit is accepted, then the housing Is considered a sale. “
Since 1973, the Census Bureau has categorized this into three categories. Not started, under construction, and completed.
The third graph shows the three categories of inventory since 1973.
The inventory of completed homes for sale is low, and the total of finished homes and homes under construction is lower than normal.
In November 2020 (red column), 55,000 new homes were sold (NSA). In November last year, 50,000 homes were sold.
The record high in November 2005 was 86,000, and the record low in November 2010 was 20,000.
This was well below expectations and sales have fallen sharply over the past three months. I’ll be late today.
New home sales fall to 841,000 annually in November
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/l40W7MsJE_E/new-home-sales-decrease-to-841000.html New home sales fall to 841,000 annually in November