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Newcastle United has only a 2% chance of success-supercomputer probability – Soccer Sports

An interesting overview of Newcastle United for the season and Saturday match against Manchester City.

The prediction of the supercomputer model is FivethirtyEight A revision of the soccer power index based on Opta’s live data, which is a rating mechanism for soccer teams considering more than 500,000 games.

They analyzed all Premier League matches this weekend, including this match against Manchester City.



Their computer model gives Manchester 89% win rate, 9% draw and 2% Newcastle win rate (probability percentages are rounded up / down to the nearest integer).

When it comes to winning the title, 38% of Liverpool will hold the title, Manchester will have a 42% chance of winning and Manchester United will have an 8% chance of winning. Chelsea 6%, Tottenham 2%, Leicester 1%, and everyone else (including Newcastle!) Is less than 1% likely to win the league.

Newcastle United hasn’t even been given a 1% chance to finish the Top 4.

It’s also interesting to see how the computer model evaluates the percentage of probability of demotion when one-third of the season is over.

89% West Brom

82% Sheffield United

46% flam

26% Burnley

18% Newcastle United

14% Brighton

8% Leeds

10% palace

3% arsenal

2% wolf

1% west ham

Despite the current downsides of Brighton, Palace, Leeds and Arsenal, only four of the bottom eight Premier League games are rated as likely to be demoted from Newcastle United. NUFC At the table.

Brighton estimates that Newcastle is unlikely to be demoted, even though it is currently 6 points ahead.

Bookmakers have a 1/7 chance of beating Manchester in Newcastle. This corresponds to an 86% chance that Manchester will win in this supercomputer model evaluation with an 89% chance.

According to a model generated by a supercomputer, the probability of Newcastle is only 2%, which is very similar to a bookmaker with a large 28/1 NUFC. This corresponds to a probability of approximately 3%.

– Soccer Sports

Newcastle United has only a 2% chance of success-supercomputer probability

https://www.themag.co.uk/2020/12/only-2-chance-of-newcastle-united-success-super-computer-probability-manchester-city-v-newcastle/ Newcastle United has only a 2% chance of success-supercomputer probability

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