Science & Technology

Over 99.9% of studies agree: Humans have caused climate change

According to a new study of 88,125 climate-related studies, more than 99.9% of peer-reviewed scientific papers agree that climate change is primarily caused by humans.

The study updated a similar 2013 paper, with 97% of studies published between 1991 and 2012 supporting the idea that human activity is changing the Earth’s climate. It is clear that. The current survey examines the literature published between 2012 and November 2020 to see if the consensus has changed.

Mark Lynas, a visiting researcher at Alliance for Science, said: Lead author of the treatise with Cornell University.

“Because we have already witnessed the catastrophic impact of climate-related disasters on businesses, people and the economy in real time, we can recognize the key role of greenhouse gas emissions so that we can quickly mobilize new solutions. It’s important, “said Benjamin Holton of Dean. A researcher at Cornell University’s Faculty of Agriculture and Life Sciences and co-author of the study, “Over 99% Consensus on Human-Caused Climate Change in Peer-Reviewed Scientific Literature,” was published in the journal on October 19. I did. Environmental research letter.

Despite such results, polls and the opinions of politicians and public representatives point out false beliefs, and there is still important debate among scientists about the true causes of climate change. Claims. According to a treatise, in 2016 the Pew Research Center found only 27% of US adults who believed that “almost all” scientists agreed that climate change was due to human activity. A 2021 Gallup study pointed out that there is a deepening division between parties in American politics as to whether the rise in global temperature observed since the Industrial Revolution was primarily caused by humans. rice field.

“To understand where the consensus is, we need to be able to quantify it,” says Lynas. “It means exploring the literature in a coherent and non-arbitrary way to avoid trading carefully selected treatises. This is the way these discussions take place in the public sphere. Often. “

In this study, researchers began by examining a random sample of 3,000 studies from a dataset of 88,125 English climate papers published between 2012 and 2020. They found that only four of the 3,000 treatises were skeptical of anthropogenic climate change. “We knew it [climate skeptical papers] There was little about the outbreak, but I thought there should be more at 88,000, “says Lynas.

UK-based software engineer and volunteer Alliance for Science co-author Simon Perry said keywords from papers known to be skeptical of the team, such as “sun,” “cosmic rays,” and “natural circulation.” I have created an algorithm to search for. .. The algorithm was applied to all over 88,000 treatises, and the program ordered them so that skeptical treatises were ranked high. As expected, they found many of these dissenting treatises near the top and showed diminishing returns further down the list. Overall, the search yielded 28 implicitly or explicitly skeptical articles, all published in minor journals.

If 97% of the results from the 2013 study still question the scientific consensus on the effects of humans on climate, the current findings go further to mitigate uncertainty, Lynas said. Said. “This should be the last word,” he said.

Over 99.9% of studies agree: Humans have caused climate change Over 99.9% of studies agree: Humans have caused climate change

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