Along Calculated risk of 1/20/2021 11:25:00 AM
Note: I usually post this monthly, but recently hesitated because of the COVID-19 pandemic. But I’ve received a lot of requests lately-the recent numbers are ugly.
This is another update to employment tracking during the presidential term. We often use the president’s term as a time marker-you can use the Speaker of the House, the Federal Reserve Board, or any other marker.
Note: Some readers have asked if we can add lag to these graphs (obviously, the new president will not affect employment in the elected month). But that opens up a discussion about the proper length of the rug, so I stick to the beginning of each semester.
Important: There are many differences between these periods. Overall employment was low in the 1980s, but participation increased in the 1980s (young people and women join the workforce) and is now generally declining. However, these graphs give an overview of changes in employment.
The first graph shows the changes in private sector payroll jobs from the time each president takes office until the end of his term. President Carter and President George HW Bush served only one term.
GW Bush, red, took office after the burst of the stock market bubble and resigned during the burst of the housing bubble. Mr. Obama (dark blue) took office during the financial crisis and the Great Depression. There was also a serious recession in the early 1980s, shortly after Mr. Reagan (dark red) took office.
There was a recession towards the end of President GHW Bush’s term (light purple), and Mr. Clinton (light blue) worked for eight years without a recession.
The first graph is for private employment only.
Trump is orange (47 months).
Employment recovery was sluggish during the first semester of Mr. GW Bush (red), and private employment fell by 824,000 at the end of his first semester. At the end of Mr. Bush’s second term, private employment collapsed, and 387,000 private sector jobs were lost during Mr. Bush’s second term.
Private sector employment is 20,970,000 for President Clinton (light blue), 14,714,000 for President Reagan (dark red), 9,039,000 for President Carter (green dashed line), 1,511,000 for President GHW Bush (light purple), and President Obama (dark). ) Increased by 11,849,000. blue).
During Trump’s 47-month term, the economy lost 2,102,000 private sector jobs.
The public sector grew between Carter’s term (up 1,304,000), Reagan’s term (up 1,414,000), GHW Bush’s term (up 1,127,000), Clinton’s term (up 1,934,000), and GW. Bush’s condition (1,744,000 job increase). However, while Obama was in office, the public sector fell sharply (277,000 jobs fell).
During Trump’s 47-month term, the economy lost 901,000 public sector jobs.
The third graph is Trump’s goal Added 10 million jobs in his four years.
Forty-seven months after President Trump, the economy lost 3,003,000 jobs, about 12.8 million behind expectations.
Public and Private Sector Payroll During Presidential Term
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/CalculatedRisk/~3/K67FHB_7fzs/by-request-public-and-private-sector.html Public and Private Sector Payroll During Presidential Term