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Texas spending frenzy hits crescendo with Monster Corey Seager Deal – MLB Sports

Few would have expected spending enthusiasm to see this offseason lead to the possibility of lockout. No one expected the Rangers to take the lead. They have now promised more than $ 500 million in salaries in the last 48 hours, most of which will come in the form of $ 325 million shortstop deals for 10 years on Monday afternoon. Corey SeagerFinished in 2nd place Our Top 50 Free Agent Ranking.. This transaction includes a $ 5 million bonus and does not include opt-out.

(A quick note before moving on: Entering these numbers makes a difference in state taxes. When playing in Texas and the American League West, Seger plays nearly two-thirds of the game in tax-exempt states. Even if we could play nearly two-thirds of the game in one of the country’s highest tax states and offer $ 350 million, it wasn’t comparable to the Rangers in total.)

At Seager, the Rangers gain franchise-level talent — when he’s healthy, it’s rarely depressing these days. He missed more than a third of the 2021 season due to a false pitch that broke his hand, lost almost three weeks of the 19th season due to hamstring tensions, and most of the 18th season was Tommy John and his hips. Surgery.

That said, a healthy version of Seager (and much more, the broken hand was an accident) says he’s capable of a season worthy of an MVP vote and is the best offensive shortstop on the market. is showing. Carlos Correa, No. 1 in the top 50. Seger’s power is an underrated aspect of his game, where every bit matches that of Corea in terms of exit speed, and the former pure hit tool outperforms the latter tool. Incredible defense.

Beyond that praise, ZIPS certainly likes Seager, but it’s not as optimistic about his future as the Rangers seem to be.

ZiPS Projection-Corey Seager

Year BA OBP SLG AB NS NS 2B 3B HR RBI BB SB OPS + DR war
2022 .291 .358 .513 522 92 152 34 2 26 92 53 Five 130 -1 4.5 4.5
2023 .290 .358 .518 496 88 144 34 2 twenty five 89 51 Four 131 131 -2 4.2 4.2
2024 .289 .357 .525 484 85 140 32 2 26 88 49 Four 132 132 -2 4.1
2025 .288 .355 .517 466 81 134 134 31 2 twenty four 83 47 47 Four 130 -3 3.7 3.7
2026 .283 .350 .502 448 75 127 127 28 28 2 twenty two 77 77 44 3 125 -Four 3.1 3.1
2027 .278 .341 .480 425 68 68 118 twenty five 2 19 19 69 40 3 117 117 -Five 2.4
2028 .271 .331 .455 402 61 109 twenty two 2 16 16 61 35 3 108 -7 1.6 1.6
2029 .266 .323 .426 376 54 100 19 19 1 13 53 30 2 99 -8 0.9.
2030 .258 .258 .311 .404 349 47 47 90 16 16 1 11 11 45 45 twenty five 2 90 -9 0.2 0.2
2031 .249 .297 .371 321 40 80 13 1 8 37 37 20 1 78 78 -11 -0.6

Models are useful tools for assessing a player’s future, but they are not sacred. In this case, I’m happy (at least aggressively) to present a compelling argument as to why he can exceed these expectations.

Instead of 28th until April next year, Seger is either in the prime minister or in the middle of the prime minister. Changes in approach already have positive consequences and can lead to aggressive improvements in Arlington. He recorded the highest pedestrian rate of his career last year, which is illogical, but mostly due to lower pitches as he became more aggressive on the pitch in the zone, especially at the opening ceremony. bottom. Ceremonial first pitch often establishes a fastball. Seager destroys fastballs, but is simply good against everything else. This resulted in far fewer fastballs and fewer strikes. However, a reduction in early cold strikes leads to improved early counts, improved late counts, and a highly desirable combination of both more walks and more pitches, which feels like a sustainable trend. increase.

In addition, Seger’s power continues to grow, as is often the case in players’ late twenties. The most hit ball in his career came in 2021, and his two best barrel rates have come in the last two seasons. This is a very good batter and it’s not hard to see him enter the six-year and seven-year war seasons in the early days of Texas.

But when talking about Seger, all of the positive praise comes from what happens when he holds a bat in his hand. Everything beyond that is a little fringed side. He is generally below average for shortstops. He has good hands and instincts, but lacks the speed and cramps normally associated with the most demanding positions of baseball, and his former plus arms are now average after elbow surgery. is. They aren’t as big a flaw as they aren’t positive, but a slide to third base is expected by the midpoint of this deal.

As for the deal itself, 10 years may seem superficially too long, and $ 32 million a year may seem too much, but that’s what free agent systems generally do and How it works, especially for Rangers. Seger’s average offer (including some adjustments for reasons) is probably a better barometer of his market value, but after all, free agents don’t have to and shouldn’t accept the average offer. .. This is an auction and players can take top deals. Even at these rates, Rangers could profit a lot from trading for quite some time and then pay a little on the backend. A deal that makes perfect sense from a team’s point of view will never do the same for a player.

Then there is simply what the Rangers are doing philosophically. With the 60-win season, without much optimism towards 2022, they are confused by the industry and, more importantly, by other free agents both this year and in the future. I’m letting you know that I haven’t. Expect to be a major player and a major payer. This type of acquisition status may help prevent them from expanding excessively in the future. for Marcus Semien So to speak, it was part of the admission fee to the large consumer club.

Rangers Nick Solak When Isiah Kiner-Falefa It’s arguably the most aggressive Nakano in the game, but that doesn’t mean they’re rapidly becoming a very interesting division and suddenly compete. The Astros have won four in the last five years. NS John gray The signature does help, but the pitching staff remains confused overall, and even a large addition to the offense produces a top-heavy lineup with holes still in the lower half.

Expecting a quick return to the relevance of the standings still requires significant work, but even if nothing else, the team’s upcoming two-day spending in Texas limited by Seger It certainly accelerates the potential to be a factor in October.

– MLB Sports

Texas spending frenzy hits crescendo with Monster Corey Seager Deal

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/texas-spending-frenzy-hits-crescendo-in-monster-corey-seager-deal/ Texas spending frenzy hits crescendo with Monster Corey Seager Deal

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