Americans are beginning to return to the workforce in large numbers, which could appear in the March employment report.
Economists polled by Dow Jones expect to add 675,000 jobs in March as the economy reopens more widely and the number of vaccinated people increases. The unemployment rate is projected to drop from 6.2% in February to 6%.
“When it comes to the economy, things are improving,” said Sean Snyder, head of investment strategy at Citi US Wealth Management. Citigroup expects to create 600,000 jobs in March, he said. “But the number of whispers around the street is close to a million, so expectations are pretty high.”
The payroll report will be released on Friday at 8:30 EST. The stock market will be closed on Good Friday, but the bond market will be open for half a day.
To February, 379,000 jobs added.. According to Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont, the number would have been about 100,000 more without the winter storms that caused power outages in Texas and sub-zero temperatures throughout the South. Those lost jobs may appear in March.
“I think March will be one of the very strong numbers,” Stanley said. “We expect salaries to reach 850,000 and the unemployment rate could drop to 5.9%.” “It’s not as strong as it is in April and May. I think I’ve seen three to four months in a row with an average of over 1 million jobs.”
He expects the job market to “return soon” from a March report.
Stanley added that, like other areas, there is already anecdotal evidence that the leisure sector is having trouble filling jobs. “You see ISM and manufacturing is hungry for workers,” he said.The· According to the Institute for Supply Management, the manufacturing index jumped to 64.7., The highest level since December 1983.
Economists also said they are monitoring economic data for signs of inflation. Stanley expects prices to rise due to the fundamental impact of last year’s weaknesses and the surge in demand. Economists will pay close attention to the wage component of employment reports to see if inflation is beginning to appear in wages. According to Dow Jones, after a 0.2% rise in February, the average hourly wage in March is expected to rise by only 0.1%.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of unemployed in February was still 10 million, compared to 5.7 million a year ago. The unemployment rate at that time was as low as 3.5%.
“I think we’ll see literally millions of people returning to the workforce when people are vaccinated, schools are reopened, and parents no longer need to stay home with their children.” Said Stanley. “I think this ISM number is the first to be a very good set of long indicators.”
Economists Second quarter As more people get stimulants and vaccinations. As of Thursday, more than 16% of the US population has been fully vaccinated, according to data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As the state relaxes, many are already traveling, eating in restaurants, and participating in other activities.
“With the lifting of restrictions on restaurants, bars and gyms, more than half of all job growth will be spent on leisure and hospitality,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton.
Swonk expects to create one million new jobs in March. She said some of them would be jobs that would take place in February.
“It’s a combination of catch-up and lifting restrictions from February. These are the two biggest things,” Squonk said. The construction industry is one of the areas where many can increase jobs due to the weather after the loss of 61,000 jobs in February.
In February, the leisure and hospitality industry added 355,000 jobs as restaurants, hotels and gambling reopened. However, the sector is still down 3.5 million year-on-year, or 20.4%.
The March job report is strong and is expected to mark the beginning of a surge in employment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/01/march-jobs-report-is-expected-to-be-strong-and-show-the-beginning-of-a-hiring-surge.html The March job report is strong and is expected to mark the beginning of a surge in employment.