In the 2020s, we may see a more centralized EU in the federal government after Britain’s departure, but the opposite may be true for Britain itself. The 2020s are an uncertain time for the Union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland due to increasing pressure on Scotland’s independence and, in some cases, Ireland’s unification.
The direct background to this is the breakthrough in trade on December 24, which is largely welcome news for Europe and the wider global business after more than five years of Brexit uncertainty. .. However, this is alleviated by the fact that the agreement is the first international trade negotiation in history to raise barriers rather than lower them, and does not cover the service sector, which accounts for 80% and 70%. Increasingly of the UK and EU economies, respectively.
Over the last five years, much attention has been paid to these trade (and former withdrawal) negotiations between the EU and the UK. This obscured the fact that the UK referendum launched a much broader series of changes.
In fact, EU-UK trade negotiations are, in fact, just one of a much broader and more positive discussion subsets in four areas: Within the UK; within the EU; also among the UK, EU and other countries.
See an example of the EU-UK’s discussion of their future relationship. Just as Christmas Eve trading is important, there are important holes not only in economic sectors such as financial services, but also in other important areas of cooperation, including foreign and defense policies that were originally proposed in the agreement. There is.
Beyond the EU-UK negotiations, Brexit has also begun important discussions within the UK. About its future within the EU; also among the UK, EU and other countries. For example, within the EU, there are some important discussions about the future of the 27 member blocks. This includes rebalancing unions in light of the new balance of power within the EU. And will the EU now be more integrated, collapsed, or confused?
For example, the EU-27 has already taken an important step towards expanding federalism in 2020 as the UK no longer belongs to Brussels-based clubs. One example is the new € 750 billion Coronavirus Recovery Fund, a major political milestone in the history of postwar European integration. This is the first time the continental president and prime minister have committed to the principle of co-issued debt as a funding tool. .. This could expand the EU’s supranational tax rights in the future and change the EU’s political economy after Brexit.
Still, it’s not just the EU, but the UK, and there’s a lot of internal debate about the future. However, although stronger centralization of EU member states may occur in the next few years (despite significant disagreements between these same countries), England, Scotland and Wales. The opposite may be true in Northern Ireland.
Brexit exacerbated tensions on British unity in several ways, including putting Northern Ireland at the forefront of British politics in ways not since the Good Friday Agreement about a quarter of a century ago. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision to allow a new border between Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain has offended many member communities, especially the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
This, coupled with the results of the 2019 UK general election, where the Kuomintang Sinn Féin and the Social Democratic and Labor Party won nine Westminster parliamentarians compared to the eight seats in the DUP, is about how fast the referral dam will be. Caused speculation. It was held in the unification of Ireland.
In the 2016 referendum, Northern Ireland was relatively silent as a problem, but there was lively debate about the potential for Brexit to lead to Scottish independence. Currently, the results of the 2019 Westminster elections and the continued political power of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in the Scottish Parliament, especially given that the SNP wants Johnson to: It means heightened tensions with other parts of the UK. I agree to the new independent vote.
His decision to deny the request so far addresses the immediate problem. However, SNPs have been playing longer games and are hoping to dominate the outcome in the 2021 Scottish elections, after which the issue could boil.
In summary, this is why Brexit’s short-term to medium-term impacts can have very different impacts on Brussels and London. While both unions are under stress, the 2020s could be significantly centralized or split, given the growing threat to territorial integrity. , The EU is getting tougher and harder.
(The writer is an Associate of LSE Ideas at the London School of Economics.)
View: Brexit can have significantly different results in Brussels and London
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