We will look at the previous data every week during the season Colz Not only do we analyze the numbers to form a kind of “what happened” story, Colz Against all other teams in the league.See the list of statistical glossaries Season statistics..thanks to Pro-Football Reference, NFL.com, Football outsider And that nflFastR project Because it is a great source of weekly data.
Recently, Colts’ defense has never “broken without bending” as much as “bending and crossing fingers”. If you’ve been wondering what Colts defense would look like in the last few weeks without a ridiculously timely takeout, this game was it.
Like an attack, the defense looked pretty good in the first half and almost cruel in the second half. They gave up their first 26 downs that day, 22 of which came after half-time adjustments. It’s just rolling over.
Mouseover for definition: Adjusted PPD,
P / R%,
EPA / Ply,
1st / ply,
Pen 1 / Yds,
The number of points per drive is 21st, which is in good agreement with the DSR (23rd) and the initial down conversion rate (23rd). The defensive EPA / Ply is ranked 16th, a little higher. It is driven by a goal line stand that was a large negative EPA series (negative EPA is good for defense).
Replaced the season totals chart with the last 6 weeks of numbers, as we did at the offense. In that time frame, Colts’ defense is ranked 25th in points for each drive he gave up. Again, this is similar to the metrics we support: DSR (24th), EPA / Ply (23rd), and 1st / Ply (29th).
The team had no problem getting the first downs, linking them down the field and scoring. Only the fourth ranked point prevented these performances from deteriorating much.
Total of paths
Definition of mouseover: EPA / db,
1st / db,
NY / A,
20 + # / Yd
The 16th-ranked EPA / db is driven by its goalline stand. The last three plays on that drive were incomplete passes with the -5.4 EPA removed from the Pittsburgh numbers. This should make some sense as it was expected to score 6 points but not.
In yard efficiency (NY / db), defense was ranked 19th, passing the first down conversion rate to 18th. The PSR was ranked 22nd, reflecting the large number of successful Pittsburgh allowed.
In the last 6 weeks, defense has been 23rd in passing EPA efficiency, 28th in passing yard efficiency, 29th in passing success rate, and 23rd in passing first down conversion rate. Winning four of those games is a small miracle.
Definition of mouseover:
1st / c,
10 + # / Yd,
Pittsburgh barely ran the ball, so there isn’t much to measure here. Yards per carry were low, but giving up TD and 4 first down with 14 carry is a defensively bad percentage. Adjusted to suit the game situation, Colts’ land defense was 25th.
The numbers for the last 6 weeks are similar to passing. 21st adjusted RSR, 21st EPS / c, 30th first down conversion rate. They were not good for running.
Conclusion and future prospects
Good defense is much harder to maintain than good attack. Historically, there are more variations on that side of the ball. Hopefully the team can get back to the state of the first half of the year, but this game wasn’t.
Colts will bookend the regular season in another match against Jaguar. Jacksonville’s attack is better than defense, but not as much as football outsiders rank 27th in aggressive DVOA. Netpoints per drive are 28th and DSR is 29th, so there is no disagreement.
2020 was an interesting QB season in Jacksonville. They started with Gardner Minshu and Surprise, which wasn’t so good in 2019! He wasn’t that good this year either. After Minshu’s thumb injury, they tried a surprise with Jake Luton! He is not very good either. So he was put on the bench for Mike Glenon and a surprise! He is Mike Glenon. So he was put on the bench for Gardner Minshew (yes, exactly the same!). Minshu was then put on the bench two games later. .. .. Wait for it. .. .. Mike Glenon! And the guys who are going to start in the 17th week, I wouldn’t be shocked if they called me to take some snaps.
The FO ranks JAX in 26th place with a pass, and given the QB carousel, I’m surprised that there are six bad pass teams. I’m also 26th in the EPA for each dropback (same bad 6 teams). On the ground, FOs like them more than I do, ranking 19th in DVOA, in contrast to my 29th adj RSR.
I’m looking for a Colts defense to rebound in this game, but I’m also hoping to hide what could be the ultimate weakness.
– NFL Sports
Week 16: Numerical Colts Defense
https://www.stampedeblue.com/2020/12/31/22207641/week-16-colts-defense-by-the-numbers Week 16: Numerical Colts Defense