Business & Investment

Where did all the truck loads go?

This Week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Index: 75 (Carrier)

Last Week’s DHL Supply Chain Pricing Index: 75 (carrier)

3-month DHL Supply Chain Pricing Index Outlook: 65 (Carrier)

The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Index Use analysis and data Freight Waves Sonar Analyze the market and estimate the bargaining power of charges between the shipper and the carrier.

The price dominance index is based on the following indicators:

Holiday noise keeps the volume down

Bid volume levels have been declining over the past week. The Outbound Bid Volume Index (OTVI) is down 25.5% (w / w) weekly, but can be misleading due to the holidays, which are essentially “0” days on a 7-day moving average. I have.

Bid volume will be positive with y / y
Sonar: OTVI.USA: 2021 (blue), 2020 (green), 2019 (orange)
For more information on FreightWaves SONAR, click here..

Despite the weak week, OTVI is still above 2020 levels by more than 5%. OTVI will continue to show weakness for the next 7-10 days as the holiday noise is eliminated. In the first quarter, when annual freight transport is traditionally the weakest, backlogs and bookings to the United States approached record highs within the past week, and volumes recovered significantly as ports continued to function. There is likely to be.

Despite poor OTVI performance in much of November and December, the accepted volume far exceeded the level of a year ago when the index was adjusted by the Outbound Tender Reject Index (OTRI). I did. Much of the outperformance is improved career compliance due to higher contract rates. The bid volume accepted is now over 14.5% year-on-year, even higher than the 7% year-on-year increase we experienced last week.

Volume imbalances are intensifying on the east coast:
Sonar: HAULW (color) and outbound bid market share (height).

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Since OTVI is affected by holidays, it is almost irrelevant to see weekly changes across the country as 131 of the 135 freight markets in FreightWaves SONAR have low bids. Instead, look at the weekly changes in the Headhole Index (HAUL), which is the difference between outbound and inbound bids, to see which markets are changing.

Harrisburg, Pennsylvania has further strengthened its position as a headhole market. Over the past week, HAUL has increased by more than 26%. Inbound volume to the market decreased by 28.4% w / w and outbound volume decreased by 18.5% w / w. This is the smallest decline among the five largest domestic markets. Further imbalances in market signal capacity will continue to tighten in the coming days.

By mode: The amount of both freezer containers and vans was heavily influenced by the holidays. The Reefer Outbound Tender Volume Index (ROTVI) is down 20.5% w / w. Despite the drawdown, the outlook for refrigerated container volume is positive for the first quarter of 2022.

The Van Outbound Tender Volume Index (VOTVI) is 27.7% lower on w / w, but the decrease in bids is not surprising as holidays are basically “0” days on a 7-day moving average. .. While sea bookings are close to peak levels, the first quarter is traditionally a period of weak freight, but truck demand can be strong throughout the first quarter.

Rejection rates remain rising, breaking seasonal trends

Careers enjoy the vacation period after generating record income throughout 2021.

Rejection rate to maintain holiday-related rise for a long period of time
Sonar: OTRI.USA: 2021 (blue), 2020 (green), 2019 (orange).
For more information on FreightWaves SONAR, click here..

Over the past year, OTRI has been above 20% and remains price-determining with carriers throughout the year. This holiday season, unlike the last two years, has a relatively good post-Christmas rejection rate. Last week, OTRI increased by 30 basis points to 21.92%, but reached 22.5% on Tuesday. This is primarily because carriers set record revenues and take a break between Christmas and New Year rather than tracking revenues before the calendar year changes.

The rise in contract rates has helped reduce rejection rates from 27% to nearly 20% throughout the year. Inflationary pressure on interest rates usually increases when the rejection rate is 7-10%. As a result, inflationary pressure remains, especially for contract rates towards 2022.

As contract rates rise in 2022 and capacity continues to enter the market, rejection rates may continue to decline after drivers return to the road after vacations.

Difficult capacity conditions continue to dominate the country:
Sonar: WRI (color)
For more information on FreightWaves SONAR, click here..

Of the 135 markets, 68 experienced rejection rates are high this week.

The map above shows the Outbound Bid Rejection Index — the Weighted Rejection Index (WRI), which is the product of weekly changes and outbound bid market share, as a way to prioritize changes in rejection rates. With production capacity tight nationwide, there are many notable markets, the blue market.

The three largest markets in Ontario, California, Atlanta, and Harrisburg are all experiencing capacity shrinking faster than markets of similar size. Harrisburg has the tightest capacity in the large market, with HAUL increased by more than 26% w / w. Harrisburg’s rejection rate has increased by 172 bps w / w.

In Ontario, the rejection rate increased by 147 bps w / w and the rejection rate increased by 167 bps w / w.

Given the demand on the West Coast, which is likely to resume in early 2022, Ontario’s capacity may decline as drivers return to the road.

Sonar: VOTRI.USA (blue); ROTRI.USA (orange); FOTRI.USA (green)
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By mode: Last week, only the dry van market experienced tightening. The Van Outbound Tender Reject Index (VOTRI) increased by 78 bps w / w to 21.41%. Van capacity can remain fairly tight as cargo volumes are expected to increase in the first quarter of 2022.

The freezing market has experienced some slack in the past week. The Reefer Outbound Tender Reject Index (ROTRI) fell 161 bps over the past week to 37.41%. Despite the drawdowns of the past week, the freezer market is still the tightest of the equipment types in SONAR.

The flatbed rejection rate, which was the highest ever last week, showed the most dramatic drawdown. The Flatbed Outbound Tender Reject Index (FOTRI) decreased by just 321 bps w / w to 31.31%. Overall, securing flatbed capacity is much more difficult than in 2020 and early 2021.

Spot rate recovers when capacity goes offline

Spot rate data available on SONAR from Truckstop.com will be updated every Tuesday with the previous week’s data.

Truckstop.com’s national spot rate rebounds after falling for two weeks:
Sonar: Truckstop.com national spot rate (blue, right axis) and dry van contract rate (green, left axis).
For more information on FreightWaves SONAR,click here..

Based on the top 100 lanes of Truckstop.com’s roadboard, Truckstop.com’s national spot rate has bounced as capacity gets tighter. The national spot rate rose 12 cents per mile to $ 3.56, eliminating all of the previous week’s rise, including fuel surcharges and other accessories. Despite the recent recession, Truckstop.com’s national spot rate remains close to the 2020 level gap of nearly 20%.

Of the 102 lanes from the Truckstop.com roadboard, 80 are reported to have increased last week. Lanes from Los Angeles to Portland, Oregon have increased significantly over the past week, increasing 33 cents per mile to $ 4.96.

Contract rates fell slightly to $ 2.74, down 1 cent per mile. The contract rate is reported two weeks late, so the impact of the Christmas holidays has not yet been seen. Contract rates are expected to rise further ahead of the first quarter of this year.

The contract rate, which is the baseline hole rate excluding fuel surcharges and other accessories included in the spot rate, maintains the same gap as the spot rate, up 18% year-on-year.

Freight Waves’ Trusted Rate Assessment Consortium (TRAC) spot rates from Los Angeles to Dallas have risen slightly over the past week. Freight WavesTRAC rates in this dense lane increased by a cent per mile to $ 4.03. Some upward pressure is expected throughout the week as volume imbalances could tighten capacity in Southern California in the coming days.

Sonar: Freight Waves TRAC rate from Los Angeles to Dallas.
For more information on FreightWaves TRAC, click here..

Freight Waves’ TRAC spot rates from Atlanta to Philadelphia are starting to rise. FreightWaves’ TRAC rate has risen 5 cents per mile to $ 3.79 over the past week.

Sonar: Freight Waves TRAC rate from Los Angeles to Dallas.
For more information on FreightWaves TRAC, click here..

Eventually, as capacity returned to the market, some of the inflationary pressures on interest rates were eased. As the rejection rate has risen, pressure to raise the contract rate continues in 2022, but the rise may not be as noticeable as in 2021. In any case, the shipper still has most of the market power. It is slowly regaining it in their favor.

Contact Kevin Hill for more information on FreightWaves Freight Intel Group. khill@freightwaves.com Or Tony Mulvey at tmulvey@freightwaves.com..

The latest episode of the podcast, Great Quarter, Guys, here..



Where did all the truck loads go?

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/where-did-all-the-truckload-capacity-go Where did all the truck loads go?

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