Business & Investment

Why is job reporting important, even if no one is around to trade it?

Does it make a noise if the job report is in a land where no one trades it?

It’s a situation where the US and European stock markets are closed in compliance with Good Friday, and the Ministry of Labor is facing announcing the number of non-farm payrolls in March.

There are several markets open for fairness. The bond market is open until noon and the stock market is open until noon.
+ 0.28%

+ 0.27%

Futures will be traded until 9:15 AM Eastern Standard Time. And the currency market is never closed.

But even if the immediate response to job numbers is limited, they will be important to the market in the future. Economists polled by Dow Jones News Wires and The Wall Street Journal estimate that 675,000 jobs will be created in March, which will be the best reading since October. Not out of the question, but with a profit of one million, the US economy will leave about eight million jobs, below pre-pandemic levels.

David Rosenberg, Chief Economist and Strategist at Rosenberg Research, points out that the economy is still underemployed if the leisure and hospitality sector, airlines, state and local governments hire all five million people abandoned. “All this says is that during this period of history, companies have learned that they can produce the same or more with less labor input, so even in the worst year of real GDP since 1946. [2020] Ten years was the best year for productivity, “he says.

That big gap is why the Federal Reserve is far from raising interest rates, even if inflation readings could skyrocket in the coming months. But what the central bank can do this year is to slow down bond purchases. This will have a significant impact on financial markets, given the focus on the surge in yields on 10-year government bonds this year.

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said asset purchases “will continue at current rates until substantial further progress is made. That is real progress, not expected progress.” Stated.

Aneta Markovska, Chief Economist at Jeffreys, said: If the unemployment rate of 6.2% in February could fall below 5% by the middle of the year, she says, that should be enough to start a discussion about tapering.

What you need to know starts early and will be updated to the opening bell Sign up here It will be delivered once to your mailbox. The e-mailed version will be sent around 7:30 AM Eastern Standard Time.

Want more for the day before?Apply Barron’s Daily, Morning briefing for investors, including exclusive commentary from Barron’s and MarketWatch writers

Why is job reporting important, even if no one is around to trade it? Why is job reporting important, even if no one is around to trade it?

Back to top button