2020 was a great year for Dream. Mine Craft The personality, which quickly gained millions of followers, has made YouTube the number one breakout star of the year. Dream is also number two on this year’s top list of YouTube creators.All of this attention and admiration sprouted from his very popular speedrun video where he competes with others. Mine Craft Players complete the game as soon as possible and sometimes keep records while doing so. But now, the very people who hold those records are disagreeing with them.
Video game records are run by speedrun.com and track runners competing in different categories and spots. Directed by the moderation team in mid-December Mine Craft Records gathered and released a 14-minute video summarizing a two-month study, including a fifth-place run submitted by Dream earlier this year. It is intended as an introduction to a much longer document, formatted as a research treatise analyzing all the high-level mathematics the team has done to verify Dream’s speedrun.
This treatise is a whopping 29 pages long and contains concessions that take into account various graphs and potential biases. Geosquared, one of the team’s moderators, may have told Polygon that the group is made up of volunteers studying math and computer science, explaining the completeness and format of the report. Geosquared is a sufficiently important authority in this regard and has been officially taken up by Mojang. Mine Craft website.
Before going into the details of the dispute, it is important to note that Dream himself has categorically denied all accusations. On twitter, Dream states that he is taking the time to give a “quality” response to the video above, but also notes that certain small claims in the video are incorrect.
“It’s sad to see people jump on a wagon of hatred before hearing the opposite,” he wrote on Twitter. “That’s how the Internet works!” Dream didn’t respond to a request for comment.
So what’s so controversial here? The video at the heart of it all is a speedrun that makes Dream incredibly lucky in a way that many think, if not impossible, at least very unlikely.Without getting caught up in the details, the point is that to reach the end Mine Craft, Requires two specific items. The easiest way to get one of the items is to trade with Piglin, an in-game creature that randomly gives you something when bartering gold bars.There is only a 5% chance that Piglin will give you the specifics needed to create the items needed for the trigger. Mine Craft‘Send. The odds for the second item are slightly higher, and certain mobs have a 50% chance of dropping that object after being killed.
In a run that was live-streamed at completion, Yume successfully bartered 42 of the 262 key items, but 211 of his overall mob killings were the second most needed item. I dropped it. In the video, the team acknowledges that small datasets may not support the actual potential of the results. For example, throwing a coin 10 times does not give you exactly 5 tables and 5 tails. But then the team went on and actually explained the potential bias. Statistically speaking, even if it benefits Dream with suspicion, in their opinion the possibility is incredible. They are so lucky that the odds of Dream are far higher than the odds of his contemporaries, even when compared to other lucky runs (all top runs are in a sense).
“Even if nothing else, the drop rate from the Dream stream is so exceptional that we need to analyze the Dream stream, whether or not anyone believes it happened legally.” The paper states.
And exactly what are the odds? When it comes to trading, the chances of getting as many successful deals as Dream has made are only one in 177 billion. He tried to give him some leeway and explain some prejudice, but the team still decided that the barter potential shown during the run was one in 82 billion. .. On the other hand, the mob drop rate that Dream had during the run was only 1/13 billion likely to occur. Basically, moderation teams are perfectly able to experience these odds, two Such very lucky results cast doubt on record practice. They can’t prove it, but the moderation team thinks Dream may be running some modified game.
Dream tried to fight the accusation as part of him. Ten days after he completed the live stream, the moderation team requested a file that could show what was active in the folder when the run was complete. Dream provided the files as requested. Still, the moderation team claims that the file may have changed during that 10-day time lag. This is likely to be the case for Dream itself, as it changes the game depending on what’s being streamed. The moderation team also claims that the original file containing the execution settings was deleted by Dream, but Polygon cannot see what was given at that time.I have a dream Published the file and made it available for download For those who are curious.But critics argue that there are other ways to change Mine Craft Drop rate not including mods.
I want to check the change date, so I was asked if I changed it. I obviously said I have 10 days passed. Change the mod you are using, depending on the version you are using. (Dream SMP is 1.16.3, speed running is 1.16.1, server 1.8, etc.)
— Dream (@ dreamwastaken2) December 14, 2020
The video that caused all this turmoil has only been published for a few days at the time of this writing, but the battle for legitimacy of execution has been going on for the past few weeks. During that time, Dream posted a variety of answers, calling the survey just a clickbait aimed at increasing views, especially given Dream’s awareness and popularity. Dream further shows that the investigation was flawed and some of the moderation team threatened to stop it, but Geosquared told Polygon that this was not true.
“All moderators unanimously voted for our decision and no one threatened to leave in protest,” he wrote in a Twitter message. “From all we know, it’s an unfounded or complete exaggeration.”
Thanks to the completely fair 2 months 29 page “Investigation” on whether the 16th place run is “too lucky”. It became a Clickbait Youtube video by the head moderator (what a shocker)
— Dream (@ dreamwastaken2) December 11, 2020
It’s hard to say without talking to everyone on the team, but there must have been some consensus among the moderators — after all, Run is no longer listed on the World Records page. Other fully verifiable runs submitted by Dream are still running. When asked why the team spends so much time and effort arguing about something that wasn’t foretold as number one run, Geosquared said placement in Polygon wasn’t important to the team.
“Of course, any run could be subject to scrutiny. In this case, after members of our community revealed an exceptional number, we looked it up just because it wasn’t a world record. It would have been dishonest not to have it, “he wrote.
The credibility of Speedrun casts doubt on the engine that made the dream bigger in the first place.For viewers — many of them are beloved children Mine Craft And you may not be particularly critical or insightful about who is providing entertainment — they are tuned because they are dazzled by Dream’s prowess, potentially some of it being forged. What would that mean?
Dream, on the other hand, claims that all of this is some kind of personal resentment. Especially because they actually have a legitimate run that the team has verified. So why forge the 5th place video of everything? On the other hand, onlookers, while the consensus also seems skeptical, are trying to understand what is there.For example, one viewer tried to simulate Billions Run without hitting the same odds that Dream revealed.
But in addition to that, Speedrun verifiers and mods talk to me publicly in the least professional way, and bs numbers while responding to new people who say “dreams are under investigation” by server members. Made it possible to spread.This applies to multiple mods and verifiers
— Dream (@ dreamwastaken2) November 28, 2020
There was also a fallout on social media One of the mods Viewers must be told to stop sending dream negatives to research treatises. “Dreams are not worth hating,” he wrote. “The criticism is certain, but I don’t hate it. Negation is not justice, and obsession takes us nowhere.”
Dream also apologized for how he responded to the allegations, writing, “I have a reason to be upset, but no reason to behave like a baby. When I get severe criticism, I tend to act before I think.”
There seems to be an attempt to make things smoother between the two, but the moderation team is sticking to the findings.
“Events observed in Dream streams cannot be modeled with wise traditional probability distributions,” the paper concludes at the end of a long study. “Even after considering the cause of the bias, the chances of this happening are immeasurable.”